Cisco Systems' (NASDAQ:CSCO) stock price recently swooned after the networking giant posted its second-quarter earnings report. Its revenue dipped 0.4% year over year to $11.96 billion, which cleared estimates by $100 million but marked its fifth straight quarter of declining sales.
网络巨头思科系统公司(NASDAQ:CSCO)公布第二季度收益报告后,其股价近期大幅下跌。营收同比下降0.4%,至119.6亿美元,比预期多出1亿美元,但这是该公司销售额连续第五个季度下滑。
Its adjusted earnings rose 3% to $0.79 per share, buoyed by tighter spending and buybacks, and beat estimates by four cents. Those tepid growth rates explain why Cisco's stock price has stayed nearly flat over the past 12 months.
受紧缩支出和回购的提振,该公司调整后的利润增长3%,至每股0.79美元,比预期高出4美分。这种不温不火的增长速度解释了为什么思科的股价在过去12个月里几乎持平。
Despite these issues, I still believe investors should stick with the tech giant, for five reasons.
尽管存在这些问题,我仍然认为投资者应该坚守这家科技巨头,理由有五。


Image source: Getty Images.1. Its infrastructure platforms business will recover
图片来源:Getty images。其基础设施平台业务将复苏
Cisco generated 53% of its second-quarter revenue from its infrastructure platforms business, which sells switches, routers, and other networking hardware. The segment's revenue fell 3% year over year, marking its sixth straight quarter of declining sales.
思科第二季度53%的收入来自基础设施平台业务,该业务销售交换机、路由器和其他网络硬件。该部门收入同比下降3%,这是其销售额连续第六个季度下滑。
Postponed network upgrades during the pandemic, lost contracts in China amid the trade war, and intense competition in both switches and routers from big rivals like Huawei all contributed to those declines. But despite those challenges, Cisco still generated pockets of growth with its Nexus 9K data center switches, Cat 9K switches for enterprise campus customers, and Wi-Fi 6 and Meraki wireless products.
疫情期间网络升级被推迟,贸易战导致中国失去合同,以及华为等大型竞争对手在交换机和路由器方面的激烈竞争,都是导致这一数字下降的原因。尽管面临这些挑战,思科仍然通过其Nexus 9K数据中心交换机、面向企业园区客户的Cat 9K交换机以及Wi-Fi - 6和Meraki无线产品实现了一些增长。
Looking ahead, Cisco expects its enterprise customers to accelerate their network upgrades as their employees return to work after the pandemic ends. Its planned takeover of Acacia Communications (NASDAQ:ACIA), which will add optical chips to its supply chain and enable it to sell faster networking gear to hyper-scale data center customers, could accelerate that recovery.2. The security business remains strong
展望未来,思科预计,随着员工在疫情结束后返回工作岗位,其企业客户将加快网络升级。该公司计划收购Acacia Communications(纳斯达克股票代码:ACIA),将为其供应链增加光学芯片,并使其能够向超大规模的数据中心客户销售更快的网络设备,这可能会加速复苏。安保业务依然强劲
Over the past year, Cisco's security business, which bundles its services with its networking hardware, has remained its fastest-growing business.
在过去的一年中,思科将其服务与网络硬件捆绑在一起的安全业务仍然是其增长最快的业务。


Image source: Getty Images.
图片来源:Getty Images。
That trend continued in the second quarter as its revenue rose 10% year over year and accounted for 7% of its top line. Cisco expanded this business by buying smaller companies -- including OpenDNS, CloudLock, and Duo Security -- over the past decade.
这一趋势在第二季度得以延续,营收同比增长10%,占营收的7%。在过去的十年里,思科通过收购OpenDNS、CloudLock和Duo Security等规模较小的公司扩大了这一业务。
This business should remain resilient as demand for end-to-end and cloud-based security solutions rises, and it should amplify Cisco's recovery once the infrastructure platforms business stabilizes. Cisco also ended the second quarter with $11.8 billion in cash and equivalents, so it could easily gobble up even more cybersecurity companies to strengthen this growing business.3. The applications business is stabilizing
随着端到端和基于云的安全解决方案需求的上升,该业务将保持弹性,一旦基础设施平台业务稳定下来,该业务将扩大思科的复苏。思科第二季度也以118亿美元的现金和现金等价物结束,因此它可以轻而易举地吞并更多的网络安全公司来加强这一不断增长的业务。应用业务趋于稳定
Cisco's applications unit -- which hosts its collaboration software and other cloud-based services -- struggled over the past year as soft demand for its on-site Unified Communications and telepresence services during the pandemic offset the growth of its Webex video conferencing service.
思科的应用部门负责提供协作软件和其他云服务。过去一年,由于疫情期间对其现场统一通信和网真服务的软需求抵消了其Webex视频会议服务的增长,该部门处境艰难。
However, the segment's revenue stayed flat year over year during the quarter, accounting for 11% of its top line, as Webex generated double-digit percentage revenue growth from nearly 600 million users. As more people return to work, demand for its Unified Communications and telepresence services should rebound and lift its total application revenue again.4. Stable gross margins
不过,该部门第四季度的收入与去年同期持平,占总收入的11%,Webex从近6亿用户中实现了两位数的收入增长。随着更多的人重返工作岗位,对其统一通信和网真服务的需求应该会反弹,并再次提高其应用总收入。稳定的毛利率
Cisco's adjusted gross margin rose year over year from 66.4% to 66.9% during the quarter. Its product gross margin grew from 65.9% to 66.6%, while its service gross margin climbed from 67.7% to 67.9%.
思科本季度经调整后的毛利率较上年同期增长了66.4%,至66.9%。其产品毛利率从65.9%升至66.6%,服务毛利率从67.7%升至67.9%。
It attributed that expansion to a better product mix and productivity improvements, which offset its weaker pricing power. It expects to generate an adjusted gross margin of 65%-66% in the third quarter.
该公司将这种扩张归因于更好的产品组合和生产率的提高,这抵消了其定价能力减弱的影响。该公司预计,第三季度经调整后的毛利率将达到65%-66%。
Those stable gross margins put Cisco comfortably ahead of its rivals Arista Networks (NYSE:ANET) and Juniper Networks(NYSE:JNPR), which ended their latest quarters with adjusted gross margins of 64.6% and 60%, respectively.5. Rosy guidance with a rock-solid dividend
这些稳定的毛利率使思科轻松领先于其竞争对手阿里斯塔网络公司(NYSE:ANET)和瞻博网络公司(NYSE:JNPR),这两家公司最近两个季度调整后的毛利率分别为64.6%和60%。乐观的业绩指引和坚如磐石的股息
Based on these factors, Cisco expects its revenue to rise 3.5%-5.5% year over year in the third quarter, and for its adjusted earnings to grow 1%-4%.
基于这些因素,思科预计第三季度收入将较上年同期增长3.5%-5.5%,调整后的利润将增长1%-4%。
Analysts expect Cisco's revenue and earnings to stay nearly flat for the full year, which ends in late July. But in fiscal 2022, they expect its revenue and earnings to rise 4% and 6%, respectively, as its infrastructure platforms business stabilizes. Cisco trades at just 14 times forward earnings, compared to forward P/E ratios of 32 and 14 for Arista and Juniper, respectively.
分析师预计,截至7月底的今年全年,思科的营收和收益将基本持平。但在2022财年,随着其基础设施平台业务企稳,他们预计其收入和利润将分别增长4%和6%。思科的预期市盈率仅为14倍,而Arista和Juniper的预期市盈率分别为32倍和14倍。
Cisco also pays a decent forward dividend yield of 3%. It's raised that payout every year since its first payment in 2011, and its low cash dividend payout ratio of 42% gives it plenty of room for future hikes.Don't sell Cisco before it recovers
思科的预期股息率也不错,为3%。自2011年首次派息以来,该公司每年都提高派息,而且42%的低现金派息率为其未来增加派息提供了充足的空间。不要在思科恢复元气之前卖掉它
It might be tempting to sell Cisco's stock after a year of unimpressive gains, but you'd be selling a stock that pays a solid dividend, trades at a low valuation in a frothy market, and is on the cusp of a cyclical rebound. Simply put, it makes more sense to stay patient, hold the stock, and reinvest its dividends until its core business recovers.
在一年的涨幅平平之后,卖出思科的股票可能很诱人,但你卖出的是一只股息丰厚、在泡沫市场估值较低、正处于周期性反弹边缘的股票。简而言之,保持耐心,持有股票,在核心业务恢复之前再投资股息,才是更有意义的做法。





