If you have $1,000 ready to invest, I have 10 reasons why you should consider buying shares of PayPal Holdings(NASDAQ:PYPL). With PayPal's stock price hovering around $300 per share, I can already hear protests that $1,000 only lets you buy three shares (a little more if you buy a fractional share as well). Maybe you're tempted to find a cheaper stock so you can get more shares and make your dollars stretch further.
如果你有1000美元准备投资，我有10个理由让你考虑购买贝宝(PayPal Holdings)的股票。随着贝宝的股价徘徊在每股300美元左右，我已经听到有人抗议说，1000美元只能让你买三股(如果你也买一小股的话，可以多买一点)。也许你想找一只更便宜的股票，这样你就可以得到更多的股票，让你的钱花得更远。
With stocks, it's helpful to focus on your rate of return, not how many shares you have. I'd rather earn a 20.75% annualized rate of return with 3 shares of PayPal stock than a 10% annual return with 100 shares of something else. Historically, a 20.75% return is a market-beating performance, and very few companies do it. But as we'll see, there are at least 10 reasons to believe PayPal stock indeed can.
对于股票，关注你的回报率，而不是你有多少股是有帮助的。我宁愿用3股PayPal股票获得20.75%的年化收益率也不愿意用100股其他股票获得10%的年化收益率。从历史上看，20.75%的回报率是优于市场的表现，很少有公司能做到这一点。但我们将看到，至少有10个理由相信贝宝的股票确实可以。
Image source: PayPal Holdings.1. Cash is diminishing in importance
图片来源:贝宝控股。现金的重要性正在下降
When global behaviors shift, it pays to heed them. For years now, cash has become something we handle less and less, giving rise to the importance of financial technology companies (fintechs) like PayPal.
当全球行为发生变化时，注意它们是值得的。多年来，我们越来越少处理现金，这让贝宝(PayPal)等金融科技公司变得越来越重要。
Even if you ultimately choose not to invest in PayPal, this is a global trend you can't ignore. You should at least invest in some company like PayPal. Life-changing value is being created by businesses operating in this space, and PayPal could be one of multiple winners. But I may be more bullish on this company than the others for the remaining nine reasons we'll see here.2. Customer growth at 16% CAGR
即使你最终选择不投资贝宝，这也是一个你不能忽视的全球趋势。你至少应该投资像贝宝这样的公司。在这个领域运营的企业正在创造改变人生的价值，贝宝可能是多个赢家之一。但我可能会更看好这家公司，因为我们将在这里看到剩下的9个原因。客户增长率为16%
When eBay spun it out in 2015, PayPal had 181 million accounts. It ended 2020 with 377 million accounts, more than doubling over that time frame and good for about a 16% compound annual growth rate (CAGR). This rapid growth reflects the trend we already noted and demonstrates PayPal's position as a top fintech.
当eBay在2015年将PayPal剥离出去时，PayPal拥有1.81亿账户。截至2020年，该公司拥有3.77亿账户，在此期间增长了一倍多，复合年增长率约为16%。这种快速增长反映了我们已经注意到的趋势，并表明了贝宝作为顶级金融科技公司的地位。
PayPal's customer growth isn't over by a long shot. By 2025, the company expects to have over 750 million active accounts, roughly double where it is today. And much of this growth could come internationally, where there's still a relatively high percentage of cash transactions compared to digital. To seize international opportunities, the company has smartly forged key partnerships with companies like MercadoLibre in Latin America and Ant Group's Alipay in China to take market share.3. Increasing customer engagement
PayPal的客户增长还远没有结束。到2025年，该公司预计将拥有超过7.5亿活跃用户，大约是目前的两倍。这种增长很大一部分可能来自国际市场，与数字交易相比，国际市场上现金交易的比例仍相对较高。为了抓住国际机遇，阿里巴巴聪明地与拉丁美洲的自由市场(MercadoLibre)以及中国的蚂蚁集团旗下的支付宝(Alipay)等公司建立了关键的合作伙伴关系，以抢占市场份额。增加客户互动
Linear growth in a customer base is one thing. It's another thing when that growth is exponential, like PayPal's. That because users are more engaged with its services over time. In 2015, the average PayPal user made 28.1 transactions annually. Excluding the positive impact of its acquisition of coupon company Honey, PayPal users transacted 40.9 times in 2020.
客户群的线性增长是一回事。而像贝宝这样的指数增长则是另一回事。这是因为随着时间的推移，用户对其服务的参与度越来越高。2015年，PayPal用户平均每年完成28.1笔交易。剔除收购优惠券公司Honey的积极影响，2020年PayPal用户交易量为40.9倍。
One recent product that's increasing PayPal's customer engagement is Buy Now Pay Later. Since launching in October, the company has noticed a 12% increase in weekly spending from those using the service. In short, PayPal is clearly becoming more relevant.
最近一款提高了PayPal用户参与度的产品是先买后付。自去年10月上线以来，该公司注意到用户每周的支出增加了12%。简而言之，贝宝显然变得越来越重要。
The PayPal app. Image source: PayPal Holdings.4. Future engagement potential is rising
图片来源:PayPal holdings。未来的参与潜力正在上升
PayPal's goal is for customers to use its services more and more, and it has multiple ways to drive future engagement. For example, the company plans to launch more services for cryptocurrency this year, allowing people to transact using Bitcoin. From the limited crypto services it already offers, management saw a 50% increase in daily user log-ins, showing just how expanding services for cryptocurrency could drive future engagement.
贝宝的目标是让客户越来越多地使用它的服务，它有多种方式推动未来的参与。例如，该公司计划今年推出更多加密货币服务，允许人们使用比特币进行交易。从它已经提供的有限的加密服务来看，管理层发现每日用户登录增加了50%，这表明扩展加密货币服务将如何推动未来的参与。
PayPal also plans to launch new services like stock trading and bill payments to get its users more engaged. And as that happens, it will not only increase its customer base, but the company will also likely generate more revenue from those users than ever before.5. Revenue growth is steady
贝宝还计划推出股票交易和账单支付等新服务，以提高用户参与度。这不仅会增加它的客户群，而且公司也会从这些用户身上获得比以往更多的收入。收入增长稳定
Because it's attracting customers and they're spending more over time, PayPal has superb revenue growth for a large-cap stock. From 2015 to 2020, revenue grew from less than $10 billion to more than $21 billion. But over the next five years, management expects revenue to exceed $50 billion, good for a CAGR of over 20% -- an acceleration from past growth.
由于贝宝正在吸引客户，而且随着时间的推移，客户的支出也在增加，作为一只大盘股，贝宝的收入增长非常可观。从2015年到2020年，收入从不足100亿美元增长到超过210亿美元。但公司管理层预计，未来5年公司收入将超过500亿美元，复合年增长率将超过20%，比过去的增长速度更快。
Don't think that's realistic? Consider how relatively little volume flows through PayPal right now. In 2020, the company had $936 billion in total payment volume (TPV). Compare that to Mastercard, which had $6.3 trillion in gross dollar volume (like TPV, but it includes things like balance transfers). Comparatively, PayPal is still small and has room to grow as cash is continually replaced with digital transactions.
难道这不现实吗?想想目前通过贝宝的交易量是多么的小。2020年，该公司的总支付额(冠捷科技)为9360亿美元。与万事达相比，万事达的美元总交易额为6.3万亿美元(与冠捷科技类似，但它包括了余额转移等业务)。相比之下，随着现金不断被数字交易所取代，贝宝的规模仍然很小，还有增长的空间。
By the way, management's $50 billion revenue target doesn't include the positive impact of acquisitions. This is PayPal's organic revenue growth potential only.
顺便说一句，管理层500亿美元的收入目标还不包括收购带来的积极影响。这只是PayPal的有机收入增长潜力。
PYPL Free Cash Flow data by YCharts. TTM = trailing 12 months.6. Free cash flow growth is accelerating
PYPL自由现金流数据由YCharts。追踪12个月。自由现金流正在加速增长
PayPal shareholders should celebrate its revenue growth because of the company's impressive margin for free cash flow. In 2020, it had a FCF margin of 23%, comparable to its margin since separating from eBay. The company expects this performance to continue with over $40 billion in FCF over the next five years, and over $10 billion annually starting in 2025.7. Share buybacks are a priority
贝宝的股东应该为其收入的增长感到高兴，因为该公司的自由现金流利润率令人印象深刻。到2020年，它的自由现金流(FCF)利润率为23%，与与eBay分离后的利润率相当。该公司预计，这种表现将在未来五年持续下去，FCF将超过400亿美元，从2025.7年开始，每年将超过100亿美元。股票回购是优先事项
With that much cash flowing in, PayPal's management has important capital-allocation decisions to make. Historically, it's rewarded shareholders with buybacks. It plans to keep doing the same, with 30% to 40% of FCF being used for future buybacks. Therefore, expect it to buy back between $12 billion and $16 billion in stock between now and 2025, which will help grow its earnings per share modestly.
有这么多现金流入，贝宝的管理层需要做出重要的资本配置决策。从历史上看，它通过回购来回报股东。它计划继续这样做，将30%到40%的自由现金流用于未来的回购。因此，预计从现在到2025年，该公司将回购120亿至160亿美元的股票，这将有助于其每股收益适度增长。
Image source: Getty Images.8. The potential for acquisitions
图片来源:Getty images。收购的潜力
PayPal doesn't just buy back stock with its cash; it reserves plenty of it for acquiring other companies. Here's why you should embrace management's acquisition strategy: Many previous acquisitions expanded PayPal's total addressable market (TAM), like when it acquired iZettle in 2018 for $2.2 billion. This helped move PayPal beyond simply online purchases to also getting a share of much larger offline commerce channels.
PayPal不只是用现金回购股票;它还保留了大量资金用于收购其他公司。为什么你应该接受管理层的收购战略呢? PayPal之前的很多收购都扩大了它的总目标市场(TAM)，比如它在2018年以22亿美元收购了iZettle。这帮助贝宝超越了单纯的在线购物，也从更大的线下商务渠道中获得了份额。
Management still sees untapped market opportunities, like government payments and asset trading, so it will be interesting to monitor potential acquisition targets as its FCF expands dramatically in coming years. And as the TAM grows for PayPal, so too will the stock's ceiling.9. A track record of benefiting multiple stakeholders
管理层仍然看到了未开发的市场机会，如政府支付和资产交易，因此，随着未来几年FCF大幅扩张，监测潜在收购目标将是一件有趣的事情。随着PayPal TAM的增长，其股票的上限也将随之增长。受益于多个利益相关者的记录
One place I like to look for investing ideas is Fortune's list of the 100 fastest-growing companies, which considers several factors such as three-year revenue growth, profitability, and stock returns. It's a good reference point to see which companies are delivering the best for their investors. PayPal ranked 78th on this year's list.
我喜欢在《财富》杂志(Fortune)的100家增长最快公司榜单上寻找投资点子，该榜单考虑了几个因素，比如三年的收入增长、盈利能力和股票回报。这是一个很好的参考点，看看哪些公司正在为他们的投资者提供最好的。贝宝在今年的榜单上排名第78位。
However, investors aren't the only stakeholders -- there's also the workforce. Glassdoor is a good third-party site to see how companies are doing in this area. It just released its 2021 list of the best places to work, and PayPal ranked 59th. Currently, 78% of employees would recommend working at PayPal to a friend, and 93% approve of the CEO.
然而，投资者并不是唯一的利益相关者——还有员工。Glassdoor是一个很好的第三方网站，可以了解公司在这一领域的表现。该公司刚刚发布了2021年最佳工作地点榜单，贝宝(PayPal)排名第59位。目前，78%的员工会向朋友推荐在PayPal工作，93%的员工对CEO表示认可。
For the record, PayPal was one of only three companies to rank on both Fortune's and Glassdoor's lists this year (Mastercard and lululemon athletica are the other two). So PayPal has one of the top track records, giving me great confidence it still has the right DNA to be a multibagger investment from here.
需要说明的是，贝宝是今年同时跻身《财富》和Glassdoor榜单的三家公司之一(另外两家是万事达信用卡和lululemon athletica)。贝宝的业绩记录是最好的，这让我很有信心，它仍然有正确的DNA，可以从现在开始进行多重投资。
PYPL data by YCharts.10. Winners win
YCharts.10. PYPL数据。胜利者赢得
Sustained business success doesn't just happen. More often than not, it's the result of an impressive market opportunity, a great business model, and savvy management. When a company has proved capable in the past, as PayPal has, it's hard to bet against it. Winners can continue succeeding for a long time.
持续的商业成功不会凭空发生。通常情况下，它是令人印象深刻的市场机遇、伟大的商业模式和精明的管理的结果。当一家公司在过去被证明有能力时，就像贝宝一样，很难对它下赌注。成功者可以在很长一段时间内继续取得成功。
Over the next seven to 10 years, given everything we've seen here, I wouldn't be surprised if PayPal was able to join a select few companies with a market cap of over $1 trillion. That would make this stock nearly a three-bagger from here and would most definitely beat the market. To me, this opportunity is definitely worth a $1,000 investment today.
在接下来的7到10年里，鉴于我们在这里看到的一切，如果贝宝能够加入少数几家市值超过1万亿美元的公司，我不会感到惊讶。这将使这只股票从现在算起几乎有三个袋子，而且绝对会跑赢市场。对我来说，今天这个机会绝对值得1000美元的投资。
