The Newtonian concept of what-goes-up-must-come-down is on full display over the past two weeks as the markets continue to drop from all-time highs. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell greased the slide with predictions of increased inflation in the near future.

过去两周，随着市场继续从历史高点下跌，“什么涨什么跌”的牛顿理论得到了充分展示。美国联邦储备委员会(fed)主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)预测通胀在不久的将来会上升，这为跌势锦上添花。

What Happened in Washington: Powell, speaking Thursday at the virtual Wall Street Journal Jobs Summit, glumly predicted that inflation would uptick in the next few months, but not enough to warrant the central bank’s changing the historically low interest rates it has maintained.

华盛顿发生的事情:鲍威尔周四在“华尔街日报就业峰会”上发表讲话，悲观地预测通货膨胀将在未来几个月上升，但不足以保证中央银行改变它一直维持的历史低位利率。

“We do expect that as the economy reopens and hopefully picks up, we'll see inflation move up,” said Powell in an interview. “Compared to the economic scenarios we contemplated a year ago, it's good to see where we are.”

鲍威尔在一次采访中说:“我们确实预计，随着经济重新开放并有望复苏，我们将看到通货膨胀上升。”“与我们一年前设想的经济情景相比，我们很高兴看到现在的情况。”

Powell offered a reminder that “for several decades, the U.S. and world economy has been in a low inflation world.” While insisting the Fed believes the nation will face “a transitory increase in inflation” he stressed the Fed would not abruptly change course in response.

鲍威尔提醒说，“几十年来，美国和世界经济一直处于一个低通胀的世界。尽管他坚称，美联储相信美国将面临“通胀的短暂上升”，但他强调，美联储不会因此突然改变路线。

“I expect that we will be patient,” he said. “There’s a difference between a one-time surge in prices and ongoing inflation.”

他说:“我希望我们会保持耐心。”“一次性的价格飙升和持续的通胀是有区别的。”

See Also: February Retail Sales Rise 4.6%, Online Sales Soar 54.7%: Key Takeaways

另见:2月份零售额增长4.6%，网上销售飙升54.7%

Powell offered an assurance that the Fed would not rush to change its policies as the economy regains its strength.

鲍威尔保证，随着经济恢复强劲，美联储不会急于改变其政策。

“There’s reason to think that we’ll begin to make more progress, soon,” he said. “But even if that happens, as now seems likely, it will take some time to achieve ‘substantial’ further progress.”

“我们有理由认为，我们很快就会开始取得更多进展，”他说。“但即使这真的发生了(现在看来很有可能发生)，也需要一些时间才能取得进一步的‘实质性’进展。”

What Happened on Wall Street: The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 1.1% at 30,924.14, while the NASDAQ Composite was down 2.11% to close at 12,723.47.

华尔街行情:道琼斯工业平均指数收盘跌1.1%，报30,924.14点，纳斯达克综合指数收盘跌2.11%，报12,723.47点。

Among the major exchange-traded funds, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE: SPY) was down 1.24% to 376.70 while the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ: QQQ) was down 1.64% to close at 304.09.

在主要的交易所交易基金中，SPDR S&P 500 ETF信托基金(NYSE: SPY)下跌1.24%，至376.70点，而景顺QQQ信托基金(NASDAQ: QQQ)下跌1.64%，至304.09点。

While the markets reacted negatively to his comments, the 10-year U.S. government bond yield responded positively and recorded a 0.07% upswing to 1.54% by the closing bell.

尽管市场对他的言论反应消极，但10年期美国国债收益率表现积极，收盘时上涨0.07%，至1.54%。

What's Next: "It is clear that the bond market is pricing in greater inflation on the back of economic reflation this year," said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US LLP. "Powell’s statement in our opinion, and its FAIT policy regime is predicated, on the notion that the structural transformation of the economy over the past two decades has a modest disinflationary bias which gives the monetary and fiscal authority greater degrees of freedom when it comes to accommodate shocks to the economy."

接下来会发生什么:“很明显，在今年经济再通胀的背景下，债券市场正在消化更大的通胀，”RSM US LLP首席经济学家乔•布鲁修拉斯(Joe Brusuelas)表示。”鲍威尔的声明在我们看来,其既政策机制建立,经济结构转变的概念在过去的二十年里有一个温和的通货膨胀偏差,给出了货币和财政当局更大的自由度时适应冲击经济。”

"From our vantage point," Brusuelas continued, "we think that the optimal action in coming weeks or months may be “Operation Twist III” where the Fed sells treasuries in its portfolio at the front end of the curve, then take the proceeds and purchases bonds at the long end of the curve to damp long term rates, in order to address what market moves that are out of line with economic fundamentals."

“从我们的角度来看,”joseph继续说道,“我们认为,最优行动在未来几周或几个月可能是“扭曲操作III”美联储出售国债在其投资组合曲线的前端,然后将所得曲线和购买债券的长期潮湿的长期利率,为了解决什么市场走势与经济基本面。”

Photo of Jerome Powell courtesy Brookings Institution.

布鲁金斯学会提供杰罗姆·鲍威尔的照片。