Economic and political uncertainty has made the market and many investors nervous. Daily market swings above 1% seem to have become commonplace, with five of the last seven trading days ending up with that type of volatility. In addition, longer term bond yields have been creeping up all year, raising the specter that inflation may be about to raise its ugly head.
经济和政治的不确定性让市场和许多投资者感到不安。市场每日波动超过1%似乎已成为家常便饭,过去7个交易日中有5个交易日出现了这种波动。此外,较长期债券收益率(殖利率)全年都在缓慢上升,令人担心通胀可能即将抬头。
In that type of environment, it's only natural to be worried that the stock market may crash. Indeed, the market will crash again; it's really only a question of when. To not just survive the next crash but thrive through it, you need to be prepared. If you're truly worried about a stock market crash, here are five ways to be ready.
在这种环境下,担心股市可能崩盘是很自然的。事实上,市场将再次崩溃;这只是个时间问题。你不仅要在下一次危机中幸存下来,还要在危机中茁壮成长,你需要做好准备。如果你真的担心股市崩盘,这里有五种方法可以让你有所准备。


Image source: Getty Images.1. Have an emergency fund
图片来源:Getty images。有应急基金
One of the big risks you face when the market crashes is that the stock market reflects investors' projections for the future of the overall economy. When the market crashes, it often means investors are getting nervous. That could turn into something of a self-fulfilling prophecy, where investors cut back on investing, which causes businesses to have less available to invest, which leads to job losses.
当市场崩溃时,你面临的一大风险是,股市反映了投资者对整体经济未来的预测。当市场崩溃时,通常意味着投资者变得紧张起来。这可能会变成某种自我实现的预言,投资者减少投资,导致企业可供投资的资金减少,进而导致失业。
Having an emergency fund in place before the market crashes gives you much better flexibility to ride out those risks. If you lose your job while stocks are down, your bills will still be due. If needed, you can pay those bills with your emergency fund money and not have to sell your stocks to do so. It also gives you time to figure out ways to cut out as many costs as you can and flexibility to try to find a decent next job instead of just accepting the first role you're offered.
在市场崩溃之前有一个应急基金可以让你更好的适应这些风险。如果你在股票下跌的时候失业了,你的账单还是要付的。如果需要,你可以用你的应急基金来支付这些账单,而不必卖掉你的股票来这么做。这也给了你时间来想办法削减尽可能多的成本,以及灵活性来尝试找到一份体面的下一份工作,而不是仅仅接受第一个工作机会。
As a general rule of thumb, your emergency fund should cover between three and six months' worth of living expenses. If it's too small, it won't do you much good when things go wrong. If it's too large, then it can get in the way of your ability to invest for your longer term needs.2. Be more conservative with the money for your nearer-term goals
一般来说,你的应急基金应该够你3到6个月的生活开支。如果它太小,当事情出错时,它不会给你带来太多好处。如果投资规模太大,就会影响你为长期需求进行投资的能力。为了你近期的目标,在资金方面要更加保守


Image source: Getty Images.
图片来源:Getty Images。
Beyond emergencies, most of us have goals we're saving for. It could be a new house, a new car, college for the kids, a once-in-a-lifetime family vacation, retirement, or a whole host of other life priorities. As the time for those goals get closer, you should get the money for those goals out of stocks and into more conservative investments.
除了紧急情况,我们大多数人都有存钱的目标。可能是一套新房子,一辆新车,孩子们的大学,一次一生只有一次的家庭度假,退休,或一大堆其他生活优先事项。随着实现这些目标的时间越来越近,你应该把用于这些目标的钱从股票中取出,投入到更保守的投资中。
Money you expect to spend in the next five years does not belong in the stock market. Instead, consider cash, CDs, money market funds, or duration-matched Treasuries or investment grade bonds as the place to stash the money for those nearer term needs. In today's low interest rate environment, you won't get much (if any) return on that near-term money, but you will have a higher certainty that it will be available for you when you need it. That can make all the difference during a market crash.3. Have a decent estimate of what your stocks are worth
你预计在未来五年花在股市上的钱不属于股市。相反,可以考虑将现金、定期存单、货币市场基金、期限匹配的美国国债或投资级债券作为存放资金的地方,以满足短期需求。在今天的低利率环境下,你短期内不会得到太多(如果有的话)的回报,但你会有更高的确定性,当你需要它时,它会为你提供。在市场崩盘时,这一点会起很大的作用。对你的股票价值有一个合理的估计
Ultimately, a share of stock is nothing more than a small ownership stake in a company. While the market moves prices up and down on a daily basis, over the long haul, what drives the company's true value is its ability to generate cash and grow over time.
从根本上说,股票只不过是公司的一小部分所有权。虽然市场每天都会使股价上下波动,但从长远来看,推动公司真正价值的是它产生现金和长期增长的能力。
You won't get those estimates perfect, but you should be able to use that knowledge to get a reasonable handle on what your companies might truly be worth. That knowledge will help you when the market crashes. It will help you make more rational decisions on whether to sell, hold on, or buy more shares.
你不会得到完美的估计,但你应该能够使用这些知识来合理地把握你的公司真正的价值。当市场崩溃时,这些知识将会帮助你。它将帮助你在卖出、持有或购买更多股票时做出更理性的决定。
After all, if a crash knocks down a company's price to where it's a legitimate bargain based on its cash-generating abilities, then that might very well be a time to aggressively buy more shares. On the flip side, if a company's shares are down because its ability to generate money looks permanently damaged, then a declining share price might very well be a reason to sell. Either way, having that value estimate goes a long way toward helping you make a better decision on what to do when your stocks are down.4. Turn off dividend reinvestment
毕竟,如果一场崩盘将一家公司的股价拉低至其产生现金能力所能承受的合理价位,那么很可能是时候大举买入更多股票了。另一方面,如果一家公司的股价下跌是因为它的赚钱能力似乎受到了永久性的损害,那么股价下跌很可能是卖出的一个理由。不管怎样,有了这样的价值评估,在你的股票下跌时能帮助你做出更好的决定。关闭股息再投资
When your companies pay dividends, those payments generally come in the form of cash. If you have dividend reinvestment turned on, then that cash gets used to buy more shares of the same stock that paid the dividend. In a declining market, you may not want to use that cash to buy more of the exact same company. Instead, you might want to either invest it in an even bigger bargain that the market throws your way or let the cash pile up to wait for that bargain to arrive.
当你的公司支付股息时,这些支付通常是以现金的形式。如果你开启了股息再投资,那么这些现金就会被用来购买更多支付股息的股票。在市场下滑的情况下,你可能不希望用这笔钱去购买同一家公司更多的股票。相反,你可能想要要么把它投资在一个更大的便宜货上,让市场砸向你,要么让现金堆积起来,等待那便宜货到来。
Either way, having those dividends as cash gives you more control over what you do with it. In addition, seeing that cash pile up without having to sell anything to raise it could go a long way toward calming your nerves during a market swoon. So even if you aren't able to invest the cash from your dividends at the market's absolute bottom, that cash could at least provide some psychological boost.5. Make sure your portfolio is diversified
不管怎样,把这些红利作为现金,你对如何使用它有更多的控制权。此外,眼看着现金堆积如山,而不需要卖出任何东西来筹集资金,这对在市场低迷时安抚你的神经大有帮助。因此,即使你不能在市场的绝对底部将分红所得的现金投资,这些现金至少可以提供一些心理上的提振。确保你的投资组合是多样化的
Often, there is a key trigger that causes the market to fall -- such as the onset of the economic restrictions put in place to attempt to combat the COVID pandemic. While many companies may see their stocks drop during a general market panic, some companies are likely to be closer to the core of the drivers of that crash than others are. Companies that are the most affected may not recover at all, while those at the periphery may just be seeing their shares go on sale temporarily.
通常,有一个关键的触发因素导致市场下跌,例如为抗击新冠肺炎大流行而实施的经济限制措施的启动。虽然许多公司的股票可能会在市场普遍恐慌期间下跌,但一些公司可能比其他公司更接近这次暴跌的核心驱动因素。受影响最大的公司可能根本不会复苏,而那些处于外围的公司可能只是看到自己的股票被暂时抛售。
You usually can't tell in advance which companies will be at the epicenter of the next crash, so to protect your overall portfolio, you should diversify your holdings across industries. Diversification can't keep your investments from falling in a general market swoon, but it can limit your exposure to catastrophic, company-specific surprise failures. That can be the difference between some temporary financial pain and a permanent loss of capital.If you're ready, a mere bear market won't scare you off
你通常无法预知哪些公司将在下一次危机中处于中心位置,因此,为了保护你的整体投资组合,你应该在不同行业中分散投资。分散投资不能防止你的投资在市场普遍低迷时下跌,但它可以限制你在灾难性的、特定公司意外失败时的风险敞口。这可能是暂时的财务痛苦和永久的资本损失之间的区别。如果你准备好了,仅仅是熊市不会把你吓跑
Whether we like it or not, bear markets are a part of investing. You can't eliminate them, and you can't always get out of their way before they affect your portfolio. What you can do, however, is make sure your portfolio and overall financial situation are prepared for them and thus you can boost your chances of making it through to the other side largely intact.
不管我们喜不喜欢,熊市都是投资的一部分。你不可能消除它们,你也不可能在它们影响你的投资组合之前就避开它们。然而,你所能做的是确保你的投资组合和整体财务状况已经为之做好了准备,这样你就可以大大提高自己完整地渡过难关的机会。
With these five ways to be ready, you can put yourself in a better spot to do just that. Still, they work better when they're put in place before the market crashes, so take advantage of the relative health of the current market to get yourself prepared. Even if the market's next crash doesn't come for a long while, you'll likely sleep and invest better knowing you're more prepared for when it does come.
有了这五种做好准备的方法,你就能更好地做到这一点。尽管如此,当它们在市场崩溃前到位时,效果会更好,所以要利用当前市场的相对健康状况,让自己做好准备。即使下一次市场崩盘还没有到来,你也可能会睡一觉,更好地投资,因为你知道自己已经为下一次崩盘做好了更充分的准备。





