(Bloomberg) -- One of the most popular arbitrage trades in cryptocurrencies is unraveling as the biggest Bitcoin fund’s once-hefty premium collapses.
(彭博社)——随着最大的比特币基金一度高企的溢价暴跌，加密货币最受欢迎的套利交易之一正在瓦解。
The trade relies on the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (ticker GBTC) trading at a premium to the value of the Bitcoin it holds -- a phenomenon caused in large part by investors paying up for access to the coin without having to buy it directly. When that happens, hedge funds swoop in to take advantage. They borrow Bitcoin, deposit the coins with GBTC in exchange for shares that are more valuable than the coins they bought, and they pocket that profit by selling the marked-up shares after a six-month lockup period expires. Thanks in part to the trade’s popularity, GBTC’s assets have swelled to over $35 billion from about $1.5 billion a year ago.
这种交易依赖于灰度比特币信托基金(Grayscale Bitcoin Trust，股票代码GBTC)以高于其所持比特币价值的价格进行交易——这种现象在很大程度上是由于投资者无需直接购买比特币而支付高价获得比特币。当这种情况发生时，对冲基金就会趁虚而入。他们借入比特币，将比特币存入GBTC，换取比他们购买的比特币更有价值的股票，然后在6个月的锁定期到期后，通过出售加价的股票赚取利润。部分得益于该交易的流行，GBTC的资产已从一年前的约15亿美元膨胀至逾350亿美元。
The fund has for much of its history traded at a premium to its underlying holdings, making the trade very profitable. However, as Bitcoin’s rally turns choppy and a stable of competing products attract attention, GBTC sank to a record discount relative to the value of the Bitcoin it holds. Exacerbating that situation is the fact that GBTC doesn’t allow redemptions -- meaning that shares can only be created, but not destroyed because the assets are held in a trust. That means that as new accredited investors plowed into the fund and boosted outstanding GBTC to a record high, those shares are now exiting the lock-up period at a time when demand for Bitcoin is fluctuating.
在其历史的大部分时间里，该基金的交易价格都高于其持有的基础资产，这使得该交易非常有利可图。然而，随着比特币涨势变得波澜起伏，以及一系列竞争性产品吸引了人们的注意，GBTC相对于其持有的比特币价值的折让跌至创纪录水平。使情况更加恶化的是，GBTC不允许赎回——这意味着只能创建股份，而不能摧毁，因为资产是由信托机构持有的。这意味着，随着新的合格投资者向该基金投入资金，并将未到期的GBTC推高至创纪录高位，这些股票现在正退出禁售期，而此时对比特币的需求正在波动。
“It became just too popular and there’s only so much demand at the end of the day by retail investors who are using Schwab or using Fidelity or a traditional brokerage,” said Nic Carter, a partner at crypto-focused venture firm Castle Island Ventures. “Basically, too many funds plowed capital into this trade thinking it was a slam dunk, and then as that capital matured and the units in the trust became market-tradable, the demand that they expected to materialize wasn’t there from the market.”
专注于加密货币的风险投资公司Castle Island Ventures的合伙人尼克•卡特(Nic Carter)表示:“它变得太受欢迎了，使用嘉信理财或富达(Fidelity)或传统经纪公司的散户投资者最终的需求是有限的。”“基本上，有太多基金将资金投入到这一交易中，认为这是一笔大功告成的交易，然后随着资金成熟，信托中的单位变得可以在市场上交易，它们预期实现的需求从市场上消失了。”
GBTC’s price sank as much as 11.6% below its net-asset value last week, its largest-ever discount, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That figure shrank to 3.22% on Tuesday as Bitcoin prices rebounded. While the world’s largest cryptocurrency has gained roughly 25% over the past month, GBTC is 14% higher in that period.
根据彭博社收集的数据，GBTC的价格上周比其净资产价值下跌了11.6%，这是有史以来最大的折扣。周二，随着比特币价格反弹，这一数字降至3.22%。虽然世界上最大的加密货币在过去一个月里上涨了约25%，但同期GBTC上涨了14%。
GBTC traded at a premium as high as 40% in late December as investors rushed to get exposure to anything in a crypto wrapper -- more than double its one-year average premium of 16.3%.
去年12月底，由于投资者争相投资任何加密包装产品，GBTC的溢价一度高达40%，是其一年期平均溢价16.3%的两倍多。
To be sure, the attractiveness of the arbitrage trade alone isn’t solely responsible for GBTC’s popularity over the past year. Ark Investment Management, helmed by longtime Bitcoin bull Cathie Wood, is the fourth-largest holder of the trust. And for those investors looking for Bitcoin exposure outside of signing up for a crypto exchange or setting up a digital wallet, GBTC -- which can be bought and sold on brokerage platforms -- provides an easy solution. Additionally, for institutional investors whose fund mandates might not allow them to purchase Bitcoin directly, GBTC provides an entry point.
当然，套利交易本身的吸引力并不是导致GBTC在过去一年大受欢迎的唯一原因。长期看好比特币的凯西•伍德(Cathie Wood)执掌的方舟投资管理公司(Ark Investment Management)是该信托基金的第四大股东。对于那些投资者寻找比特币接触以外的注册加密交换或设立一个电子钱包,GBTC——可以买卖经纪平台上,提供了一种简便的解决方案。此外，对于基金委托可能不允许他们直接购买比特币的机构投资者，GBTC提供了一个切入点。
Other big holders in GBTC include Three Arrows Capital Ltd., Horizon Kinetics LLC and Churchill Management Corp., Bloomberg data show.
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But for those traders who did plow into the arbitrage trade, GBTC’s now-deep discount could prove painful, according to Multicoin Capital Management LLC’s Kyle Samani.
但据多币资本管理公司(Multicoin Capital Management LLC)的萨马尼(Kyle Samani)说，对于那些确实进行套利交易的交易员来说，GBTC目前的大幅折价可能是痛苦的。
“There’s a lot of people who are in that trade who thought they were going to make money who are now going to lose money,” said Samani, co-founder of the Austin, Texas-based crypto hedge fund. “There may be some segments of traders who are over-exposed and could be really underwater.”
萨马尼是这家总部位于德克萨斯州奥斯汀的加密对冲基金的联合创始人，他表示:“很多从事这一交易的人认为他们会赚钱，但现在他们将赔钱。”“可能会有一些交易员过度敞口，可能真的亏本了。”
Amid all this, Digital Currency Group Inc., the parent company of Grayscale Investments, said on Wednesday it will be buying up to $250 million worth of GBTC shares. Grayscale declined a request for comment.
与此同时，greyscale Investments的母公司Digital Currency Group Inc.周三表示，将购买价值至多2.5亿美元的GBTC股票。Grayscale拒绝了置评请求。
Of course, the premium could reemerge. GBTC’s discount could sink to the point where bargain-hunters begin buying the fund, according to Carter. Additionally, Bitcoin’s rally could reignite, resulting in the same red-hot demand for crypto exposure that ballooned the trust’s premium late last year.
当然，这种溢价可能再次出现。卡特说，GBTC的折价可能会降至逢低买入者开始买入该基金的水平。此外，比特币的涨势可能会再度升温，导致对加密货币敞口的狂热需求，去年年底曾导致该信托基金的溢价飙升。
But even still, given how ubiquitous the GBTC arbitrage has become, it probably won’t produce the same level of returns going forward, according to ProChain Capital’s David Tawil.
但ProChain Capital的戴维•塔维尔(David Tawil)表示，即便如此，考虑到GBTC套利已经变得非常普遍，它未来可能不会产生相同水平的回报。
“The arbitrage trade has been exploited so much -- if you’re the first person that identifies it, certainly you’re going to be the person that makes the most money,” said Tawil, who is president of ProChain, a crypto hedge fund. “By whatever number -- the thousandth person who identifies the trade and tries to exploit it -- the arb goes further and further down. We’re not at those inefficient early days anymore.”
加密对冲基金ProChain的总裁塔维尔说:“套利交易已经被充分利用了——如果你是第一个发现它的人，你肯定会成为赚最多钱的人。”“不管有多少人——第一千个发现这种交易并试图利用它的人——arb就越走越低。我们不再处于效率低下的早期阶段。”
