Zaw Moe Ko was happy that his boss in Myanmar’s commercial center of Yangon pays him in dollars -- until the pandemic struck. Now he can’t get rid of them fast enough.

佐茂柯(Zaw Moe Ko)很高兴他在缅甸商业中心仰光的老板用美元给他发工资，直到疫情爆发。现在他无法尽快摆脱它们。

“I feel safer now when I have kyat rather than U.S. dollars,” he said, in what’s become a more widespread vote of confidence in the local currency. “If I only have U.S. notes, it will be hard for me to buy goods in a local market.”

“我现在持有缅元而不是美元时，感觉更安全，”他说，这已经成为对缅元更普遍的信任投票。“如果我只有美钞，我就很难在当地市场买到东西。”

In a year that’s upended so many norms, the dollar’s crown has slipped. The world’s reserve currency is trailing its Group-of-10 peers, but its slide is most evident in some shallower markets on the fringes of global finance. The kyat has gained as much as 11% versus the dollar -- Asia’s best performance. The surge is an amplified version of what’s played out in many emerging markets as stay-at-home orders have slashed discretionary spending and sent imports tumbling.

在颠覆了如此多常规的一年里，美元的王冠已经滑落。这一全球储备货币的表现落后于其他10国集团(g20)成员国，但其下滑在一些处于全球金融边缘的较浅市场表现得最为明显。缅甸元兑美元的涨幅高达11%，是亚洲表现最好的货币。随着国内订单大幅削减可自由支配支出，导致进口大幅下滑，这是许多新兴市场所经历情况的放大版。

And the dollar’s losses have compounded as it’s surrendered much of its haven status to the local market. Restrictions on movement have made locals nervous of relying on the greenback, as money-changers may not be available to convert their U.S. notes to kyat for essentials such as groceries.

由于美元的避险地位在很大程度上让位给了本地市场，因此美元的下跌加剧。对货币流通的限制令当地人对依赖美元感到紧张，因为兑换商可能无法将美元兑换成缅元，以购买食品杂货等生活必需品。

Myanmar’s authorities banned domestic travel and re-imposed a strict stay-at-home order in Yangon province, home to the nation’s commercial hub, after new cases and deaths began soaring in late August. People have increasingly relied on kyat to buy critical supplies such as food and medicines rather than spending on travel, clothes and other fashion items, said Than Lwin, senior consultant at Kanbawza Bank and a former deputy governor of the central bank.

缅甸当局禁止国内旅行，并重新对该国商业中心仰光省实施了严格的居家禁令。此前，8月底缅甸新增病例和死亡人数开始飙升。Kanbawza银行高级顾问、前中央银行副行长than Lwin表示，人们越来越依赖缅甸元购买食品和药品等重要物资，而不是把钱花在旅游、服装和其他时尚用品上。

The kyat’s dependability in a chaotic time contrasts with its volatile reputation. The kyat fell about 12% in 2018, the year the central bank eliminated its trading band. Inflation, which hit 9.2% in February, has eroded its value. Times were worse in the 1980s under military rule, when snap de-commissioning of bank notes wiped out many people’s savings.Seeking Stability

缅甸军政府在混乱时期的可靠性与其不稳定的声誉形成了鲜明对比。2018年，缅元下跌了约12%，这一年印度央行取消了交易区间。二月份达到9.2%的通货膨胀已经侵蚀了它的价值。20世纪80年代，在军事统治下，情况更糟，当时银行票据的快速停用使许多人的储蓄化为乌有。寻求稳定

Demand for the currency has increased with the expectation that it would continue to appreciate, coupled with the fact that small trades can have big impacts in low-traffic markets, according to the World Bank’s Myanmar Economic Monitor.

世界银行(World Bank)的《缅甸经济观察》(Myanmar Economic Monitor)显示，由于对人民币将继续升值的预期，加上小额贸易可能对客流量低的市场产生重大影响，对人民币的需求已经增加。

The Central Bank of Myanmar is now emphasizing currency stability. Similar to its peers in larger economies such as Thailand and South Korea, policy makers have bought dollars to prevent volatility from hurting the competitiveness of their exports.

缅甸中央银行现在强调货币稳定。与泰国和韩国等较大经济体的同行一样，中国的决策者也买入美元，以防止汇率波动损害其出口产品的竞争力。

CBM bought $156 million of the U.S. currency in the second half of the year through Dec. 23, to build foreign reserves and smooth volatility, said May Toe Win, the director-general of foreign exchange management at the monetary authority. The currency has also backtracked in recent weeks in line with expectations of a recovery that would revive consumption, and a seasonal bump in car imports.

CBM外汇管理局局长May Toe Win表示，在截至12月23日的下半年，CBM买入1.56亿美元美元，以建立外汇储备，平定市场波动。最近几周，人民币汇率也出现了回落，原因是市场预期经济复苏将提振消费，汽车进口也将出现季节性增长。

“When business return to normal, it may lead to some depreciation of kyat as imports might increase,” she said.

她说:“当业务恢复正常时，由于进口可能增加，可能会导致缅元贬值。”

Read more: Myanmar’s Trade Reaches $36.7b in 2019-20, Exceeds Target

更多阅读:2019- 2020年缅甸贸易额达到367亿美元，超过目标

The country’s de facto leader Aung San Suu Kyi said the government is reviewing options to gradually ease Covid-19 restrictions for the economy despite the recent surge of virus cases. Earlier in December, the nation allowed restaurants and tea shops in townships exempted from the stay-at-home order to reopen.

该国实际领导人昂山素季表示，尽管最近病毒病例激增，但政府正在评估逐步放宽对经济的Covid-19限制的选择。去年12月早些时候，国家允许免除在家禁令的乡镇餐馆和茶店重新开业。

The kyat’s strength is likely to partially reverse “as economic activity starts to normalize,” said Khoon Goh, head of Asia research at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. in Singapore. He sees demand for dollars recovering further, driving the kyat toward 1400 by the end of next year, from its current level of around 1342.

“随着经济活动开始正常化”，缅元的强势可能会部分逆转，澳大利亚和新西兰银行集团驻新加坡的亚洲研究主管Khoon Goh说。他预计美元需求将进一步复苏，到明年年底将推动缅元从目前约1342元的水平升至1400元。

The view on the ground is more skeptical. “In the past, I didn’t sell all of the dollars I got as my salary because I wanted to keep some notes for the sake of my future,” said Zaw Moe Ko. “But as the second wave worsened from what I expected, I decided to sell them all and bought some gold instead.”

地面上的观点则更加令人怀疑。他说:“在过去，我没有卖掉所有的工资，因为我想为我的未来留一些钞票。”“但当第二波投资比我预期的更糟糕时，我决定卖掉它们，转而买进一些黄金。”

Published on December 23, 2020, 5:34 PM EST

发表于2020年12月23日，美国东部时间下午5:34