- By Nathan Parsh
——内森·帕什
Recently, I discussed how Northrop Grumman Corp. (NYSE:NOC) offered investors tremendous value due to a weak stock performance over the last year. Shares are down 17% over the last 12 months compared to an over 16% gain for the S&P 500 index.
最近,我讨论了诺斯罗普·格鲁曼公司(Northrop Grumman Corp., NYSE:NOC)是如何在去年股票表现疲软的情况下为投资者提供巨大价值的。过去12个月,股价累计下跌17%,而标准普尔500指数涨幅超过16%。
Northrop Grumman has only marginally outperformed the U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) over this period of time.Warning! GuruFocus has detected 4 Warning Signs with NOC. Click here to check it out.
诺斯罗普·格鲁曼公司在这段时间内的表现仅略优于美国航空航天和国防ETF (ITA)。GuruFocus已经检测到NOC的4个警告信号。点击这里查看。
NOC 15-Year Financial Data
15年财务数据
The intrinsic value of NOC
NOC的内在价值
Peter Lynch Chart of NOC
Peter Lynch NOC图表
After reviewing the company's most recent quarter, I continue to believe that investors purchasing shares of the aerospace and defense company are buying a stock trading below its intrinsic value. Patient investors could enjoy solid gains by buying Northrop Grumman today.
在回顾了该公司最近一个季度的业绩后,我仍然认为,投资者购买这家航空航天和国防公司的股票,是在购买股价低于其内在价值的股票。耐心的投资者今天就购买诺斯罗普·格鲁曼公司的股票,可能会获得可观的收益。
Earnings highlights
业绩突出
Northrop Grumman reported fourth-quarter and full-year earnings results on Jan. 28. For the quarter, revenue grew 17.1% to $10.21 billion, easily beating Wall Street analysts' estimates by almost $1 billion. Adjusted net earnings totaled $1.1 billion, or $6.59 per share, compared to $949 million, or $5.61 per share, in the prior year. Adjusted net earnings grew 16% while adjusted earnings per share were higher by 17.5%.
诺斯罗普·格鲁曼公司于1月28日公布了第四季度和全年收益报告。该季度收入增长17.1%,至102.1亿美元,轻松超出华尔街分析师的预期近10亿美元。调整后的净利润总计11亿美元,合每股收益6.59美元,上年同期分别为9.49亿美元和5.61美元。调整后的净利润增长了16%,而调整后的每股收益增加了17.5%。
For the year, revenue increased 9% to $36.8 billion. Adjusted net earnings of $4 billion, or $23.65 per share, compared favorably to adjusted net earnings of $3.6 billion, or $21.21 per share, for 2019. Adjusted net earnings and adjusted earnings per share both improved approximately 11% year over year. Adjusted earnings per share topped the company's guidance of $22.45 given at the end of the third quarter.
全年收入增长9%,至368亿美元。调整后的净利润为40亿美元,合每股23.65美元,低于2019年调整后的净利润36亿美元,合每股21.21美元。调整后的净利润和调整后的每股收益都同比增长了约11%。调整后的每股收益超过了该公司在第三季度末给出的22.45美元的预期。
Growth for Northrop Grumman was broad based, both for the quarter and year.
诺斯罗普·格鲁曼公司在本季度和本年度都实现了广泛的增长。
Aeronautics Systems grew 24% for the quarter to $3.5 billion. Manned Aircraft was the primary driver of growth, but the company also experienced higher demand for restricted programs and the E-2D, an early warning and command and control aircraft system. This was offset by lower volumes for the B-2 Defensive Management System modernization program as it nears completion. Operating margins fell 130 basis points to 9.7% and 80 basis points to 10.7% for the quarter and year, respectively, primarily due to the sale of equipment to a restricted customer.
航空系统公司本季度增长24%,达到35亿美元。载人飞机是增长的主要驱动力,但该公司也经历了限制项目和E-2D的更高需求,E-2D是一种早期预警和指挥控制飞机系统。随着B-2防御管理系统现代化计划接近完成,该计划的产量减少了。本季度和本年度的营业利润率分别下降130个基点至9.7%和80个基点至10.7%,主要原因是向受限客户销售设备。
Defense Systems was higher by 2% to $1.9 billion. Mission Readiness volumes were higher compared to the prior year, with growth seen in both restricted and international programs. Gains in these areas were offset by weakness in a program nearing completion. Volumes for the Guided Missile Launch Rocket System and Advanced Anti-Radiation Guided Missile products were especially strong. Quarterly operating margin increased 180 basis points to 11.2% while the operating margin for 2020 improved 60 basis points to 11.2%.
国防系统则上升了2%,达到19亿美元。与前一年相比,任务准备数量有所增加,受限项目和国际项目都出现了增长。这些领域的进步被即将完成的项目的弱点所抵消。导弹发射火箭系统和先进反辐射导弹产品的销量尤其强劲。季度营业利润率增长180个基点至11.2%,而2020年营业利润率增长60个基点至11.2%。
Mission Systems improved 10% to $2.7 billion as all business areas demonstrated growth compared to the prior year. Higher volumes for restricted programs, F-35 and other programs lifted Airborne Sensors & Networks while improving demand for targeting programs led to higher sales for Navigation, Targeting & Survivability. Maritime/Land Systems & Sensors benefited from increased volumes for land and marine systems, though international commercial volumes were negatively impacted by Covid-19. Operating margins for the fourth quarter fell 170 basis points to 14.2%, while yearly operating margins declined 50 basis points to 14.5% due to lower margins as a result of the Covid-19 impact on Maritime/Land Systems & Sensors.
与前一年相比,任务系统业务增长10%,达到27亿美元。F-35和其他项目增加了机载传感器和网络的数量,同时对目标瞄准项目的需求增加,导致导航、目标瞄准和生存能力的销售增加。海洋/陆地系统和传感器受益于陆地和海洋系统数量的增加,尽管国际商业数量受到了Covid-19的负面影响。第四季度营业利润率下降170个基点,至14.2%,而由于Covid-19对海洋/陆地系统和传感器的影响,年营业利润率下降50个基点,至14.5%。
Space Systems was higher by 31% to $2.6 billion. Space benefited from higher volumes on restricted programs and NASA programs. Launch & Strategic Missiles benefited from the ramp-up for the Ground Based Strategic Deterrent program, which is the ground-based leg of the U.S.'s nuclear triad. The operating margin fell 120 basis points to 10.1% for the quarter and decreased 50 basis points to 10.2% for the year.
太空系统则高出31%,达到26亿美元。太空受益于更多的受限项目和NASA项目。发射和战略导弹受益于陆基战略威慑计划的升级,这是美国的陆基支柱核三位一体。本季度营业利润率下降120个基点至10.1%,全年下降50个基点至10.2%。
For 2020, all segments posted growth and all Defense Systems had at least high single-digit growth rates. Space Systems was the best performer for the year, with revenue growing 18% year over year.
2020年,所有部门都实现了增长,所有国防系统都至少实现了个位数的增长。空间系统公司是今年表现最好的公司,收入同比增长18%。
Northrop Grumman received a considerable number of awards during 2020. Net awards totaled almost $10 billion for the quarter while full-year awards reached nearly $53 billion.
诺斯罗普·格鲁曼公司在2020年期间获得了大量奖项。本季度净奖金总额接近100亿美元,全年奖金接近530亿美元。
A sampling of awards received in 2020 include:$17.4 billion for restricted programs, which include $9 billion for Space Systems, $6 billion for Aeronautics Systems and $2.2 billion for Mission Systems.
2020年获得的奖励包括:174亿美元用于限制项目,其中90亿美元用于空间系统,60亿美元用于航空系统,22亿美元用于任务系统。
$13.3 billion for the Ground Based Strategic Deterrent program.
133亿美元用于地面战略威慑计划。
$1.9 billion for the Next Gen OPIR missile warning system.
19亿美元用于下一代OPIR导弹预警系统。
$1.7 billion for the F-35 program.
17亿美元用于F-35项目。
$0.9 billion for the Triton, the company's high-altitude long endurance unmanned ariel vehicle.
9亿美元用于Triton,该公司的高空长航时无人驾驶的ariel飞行器。
$0.8 billion for Global Hawk.
8亿美元收购全球鹰。
As you can see, awards received for the year were spread out amongst nearly all segments of the company. Given the size and breadth of new work, all of Northrop Grumman's segments are well positioned for continued growth beyond just 2020.
正如你所看到的,这一年获得的奖项几乎分布在公司的所有部门。考虑到新业务的规模和广度,诺斯罗普·格鲁曼公司的所有业务都将在2020年后继续增长。
The company sports a massive backlog of $81 billion, which is 25% higher than the backlog at the end of 2019. This is also just below Northrop Grumman's record backlog of $81.3 billion that the company possessed at the end of the third quarter. The book-to-bill ratio was a solid 1.4 for 2020, showing that the company is increasing its backlog at a faster rate that it can work off. The backlog as is would take Northrop Grumman more than two years based on last year's revenue totals.
该公司积压了810亿美元的巨额订单,比2019年底的积压量高出25%。这也刚好低于诺斯罗普·格鲁曼公司第三季度末813亿美元的积压记录。到2020年,订单与账单的比例为1.4,这表明该公司正在以更快的速度增加其积压订单。根据诺斯罗普·格鲁曼公司去年的总收入,积压订单将需要两年多的时间。
Northrop Grumman also remains an incredibly shareholder-friendly company. The company authorized an additional $3 billion in share repurchases, which when added to the prior authorization amounts to $5.8 billion of total share repurchases or nearly 12% of Northrop Grumman's current market capitalization. For the period of 2011 through 2020, the company reduced its share count by an average of 4.3% per year.
诺斯罗普·格鲁曼仍然是一家对股东非常友好的公司。诺斯罗普·格鲁曼公司还批准了30亿美元的股票回购,如果再加上之前的授权,这相当于58亿美元的股票回购总额,接近诺斯罗普·格鲁曼公司当前市值的12%。从2011年到2020年,该公司平均每年减少4.3%的股份。
The company also raised its dividend by around 10% for the June 17, 2021 distribution, giving the company 17 consecutive years of dividend growth. Shares yield just 1.9%, but the dividend has increased with a compound annual growth rate of more than 11% over the last decade.
该公司还将2021年6月17日的股息提高了约10%,使公司股息连续17年增长。股票收益率仅为1.9%,但股息在过去10年中以超过11%的年复合增长率增长。
It ended the year with its balance sheet in a solid position. Total assets numbered $44.5 billion, with current assets of $15.3 billion and cash and equivalents of $4.9 billion. This compares to $33.9 billion of total liabilities and $9.6 billion of current liabilities. Total debt stood at $15.6 billion (down from $17.4 billion at the end of the third quarter), but no debt is due within the next year.
去年底,该公司的资产负债表状况良好。总资产为445亿美元,流动资产为153亿美元,现金及现金等价物为49亿美元。相比之下,总负债为339亿美元,流动负债为96亿美元。债务总额为156亿美元(低于第三季度末的174亿美元),但明年内没有债务到期。
Adjusted free cash flow grew 18% to nearly $3.7 billion for the year, which was more than enough to cover the distribution of $953 million of dividends and $490 million worth of share repurchases during the year.
调整后的自由现金流全年增长18%,接近37亿美元,足以支付9.53亿美元的股息分配和4.9亿美元的股票回购。
Northrop Grumman provided guidance for 2021 as well. Revenue for the current year is projected to be in the range of $35.1 billion to $35.5 billion, a 4.1% decline from the prior year at the midpoint. Adjusted earnings per share is expected in a range of $23.15 to $23.65, a 1.1% decrease at the midpoint from 2020.
诺斯罗普·格鲁曼公司也为2021年提供了指导。今年的营收预计在351亿美元至355亿美元之间,较上年中值下降4.1%。调整后的每股收益预计在23.15美元至23.65美元之间,较2020年的中值下降1.1%。
The declines for revenue and adjusted earnings per share are due to the Northrop Grumman's decision to sell its federal IT and mission support services business to an affiliate of Veritas Capital for $3.4 billion in cash. Northrop Grumman has stated that the proceeds of this acquisition will be used to repurchase shares. Excluding revenue earned from this business from last year's results, revenue is expected to be 2.3% higher for 2021.
收入和调整后每股收益的下降是由于诺斯罗普·格鲁曼公司决定以34亿美元现金将其联邦IT和任务支持服务业务出售给Veritas Capital的子公司。诺斯罗普·格鲁曼公司已声明,此次收购的收益将用于回购股票。除去去年的业绩中该业务的收入,预计2021年的收入将增长2.3%。
Valuation
估值
The last time I looked at Northrop Grumman, I found that the stock offered tremendous value. The company's most recent earnings report only reinforces this belief.
最后一次看诺斯罗普·格鲁曼公司时,我发现该公司的股票具有巨大的价值。该公司最近的收益报告只是强化了这种看法。
Shares of Northrop Grumman trade for around $301 at the moment, down slightly from my last review of the company. Using the midpoint for expected adjusted earnings per share for 2021, the company has a forward price-earnings ratio of 12.9. Shares have an average price-earnings ratio of 13.9 over the last decade, meaning the stock trades at a solid discount to its historical valuation.
诺斯罗普·格鲁曼公司的股价目前在301美元左右,比我上次对该公司的评估略有下降。以2021年调整后每股预期收益的中点计算,该公司的预期市盈率为12.9。过去10年,该股的平均市盈率为13.9倍,这意味着该股的交易价格相对于历史估值有很大的折扣。
GuruFocus finds that Northrop Grumman is well below its GF Value.Northrop Grumman Continues to Impress
GuruFocus发现诺斯罗普·格鲁曼公司的GF值远远低于它。诺斯罗普·格鲁曼公司继续给人留下深刻印象
Northrop Grumman has a GF Value of $382.30. Using the current stock price, shares have a price-to-GF Value of 0.79. This earns the company a rating of modestly undervalued from GuruFocus. Shareholders would see a 27% return from the current share price if the stock were to trade with its GF Value.
诺斯罗普·格鲁曼公司的GF值为382.30美元。以当前股价计算,股票的价格- gf值为0.79。这使得GuruFocus对该公司的评级被略微低估。如果该股按其GF值交易,股东将从当前股价获得27%的回报。
Final thoughts
最终的想法
Northrop Grumman has been a favorite name of mine in the aerospace and defense sector as its business model has been strong, its shareholder returns excellent and the valuation very attractive. The fourth-quarter and full-year results only reaffirm my bullishness on the company and stock. Investors looking for entry into the aerospace and defense sector could be well rewarded purchasing Northrop Grumman as the stock continues to trade below its own historical valuation as well as its intrinsic value. I continue to rate shares as a buy.
诺斯罗普·格鲁曼一直是我在航空航天和国防部门最喜欢的名字,因为它的商业模式一直很强大,它的股东回报很好,估值非常有吸引力。第四季度和全年的业绩只是重申了我对公司和股票的乐观态度。由于诺斯罗普·格鲁曼公司的股票继续低于其自身的历史估值和内在价值,寻求进入航空航天和国防领域的投资者可能会获得丰厚的回报。我继续把股票评级定为买入。
Disclosure: The author has no position in any stocks mentioned in this article.
披露:作者并未持有本文提及的任何股票。