Does the February share price for Monash IVF Group Limited (ASX:MVF) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock's intrinsic value by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model is the tool we will apply to do this. Don't get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward.

Monash IVF Group Limited (ASX:MVF) 2月份的股价是否反映了它的真正价值?今天，我们将通过将预期的未来现金流折现到其现值来估计股票的内在价值。贴现现金流(DCF)模型是我们将应用的工具。不要被这些术语吓倒，它背后的数学原理其实很简单。

Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.

但要记住，评估公司价值的方法有很多，现金流贴现只是其中一种方法。如果你对这类估值仍有一些迫切的疑问，看看简单的华尔街分析模型。

Check out our latest analysis for Monash IVF Group Crunching the numbers

看看我们对莫纳什试管婴儿小组处理数据的最新分析

We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

我们使用的是所谓的两阶段模型，这意味着我们有两个不同时期的公司现金流增长率。一般来说，第一阶段是高增长阶段，第二阶段是低增长阶段。在第一阶段，我们需要估计公司未来十年的现金流量。在可能的情况下，我们使用分析师估计，但当这些无法得到时，我们从最近的估计或报告的价值推断出之前的自由现金流(FCF)。我们假设自由现金流萎缩的公司将减缓其萎缩速度，而自由现金流增长的公司将在这段时间内看到其增长速度放缓。我们这样做是为了反映出，经济增长往往在最初几年比之后几年放缓得更多。

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

一般来说，我们假设今天的一美元比未来的一美元更有价值，所以这些未来现金流的总和就被折现为今天的价值:10年自由现金流(FCF)估计

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)

(“Est”=简单的Wall St估计的FCF增长率)

Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = AU$122m

10年现金流(PVCF)现值= 1.22亿澳元

After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.0%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 6.5%.

在计算了最初10年期间的未来现金流的现值后，我们需要计算终端价值，它包含了第一阶段之后的所有未来现金流。戈登增长公式用于计算未来年增长率等于10年期政府债券收益率2.0%的5年平均值的最终价值。我们以6.5%的权益成本将终端现金流折现为今天的价值。

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2030 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = AU$16m× (1 + 2.0%) ÷ (6.5%– 2.0%) = AU$354m

终值(电视)= FCF2030×(1 + g)÷(r - g) =盟16美元×(1 + 2.0%)÷(6.5% - 2.0%)=盟354美元

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= AU$354m÷ ( 1 + 6.5%)10= AU$188m

终端价值的现值(PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= 3.54亿澳元÷(1 + 6.5%)10= 1.88亿澳元

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is AU$310m. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of AU$0.8, the company appears about fair value at a 1.3% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.dcfThe assumptions

总价值，或者说权益价值，就是未来现金流的现值之和，在这种情况下是3.1亿澳元。最后一步是用股权价值除以流通股数。相对于目前每股0.8澳元的股价，该公司似乎符合公允价值，较当前股价折让1.3%。估值是不精确的仪器，就像望远镜一样——移动几度，就会进入另一个星系。请记住这一点。 dcfThe假设

We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Monash IVF Group as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.5%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.863. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.Moving On:

我们要指出，折现现金流最重要的输入是贴现率，当然还有实际现金流。你不需要同意这些输入，我建议你自己重新做计算并使用它们。DCF也不考虑一个行业的可能周期性，或一家公司的未来资本要求，所以它不能给出一家公司的潜在业绩的全面性。鉴于我们将莫纳什体外受精集团(Monash IVF Group)视为潜在股东，股权成本被用作贴现率，而不是计入债务的资本成本(或加权平均资本成本，WACC)。在这个计算中，我们使用了6.5%，这是基于0.863的杠杆系数。贝塔是衡量股票相对于整个市场波动的指标。我们从全球可比公司的行业平均贝塔系数中得出我们的贝塔系数，限制在0.8到2.0之间，这是一个稳定业务的合理范围。移动:

Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. For Monash IVF Group, we've put together three important elements you should explore:Risks: Take risks, for example - Monash IVF Group has 2 warning signs (and 1 which is significant) we think you should know about.

在构建你的投资主题方面，估值只是硬币的一面，理想情况下，它不会是你对一家公司的唯一分析。用DCF模型不可能获得一个简单的估值。最好是应用不同的案例和假设，看看它们会如何影响公司的估值。例如，公司股权成本或无风险利率的变化会显著影响估值。对于莫纳什试管婴儿小组，我们把三个重要的元素放在一起，你应该探索:风险:冒险，例如，莫纳什试管婴儿小组有两个警告信号(其中一个是重要的)，我们认为你应该知道。

Future Earnings: How does MVF's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.

未来收益:MVF的增长率与同行和更广泛的市场相比如何?通过与我们的自由分析师增长预期图表互动，深入挖掘未来几年分析师的共识数字。

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the ASX every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

PS. The simple Wall St app每天对ASX上的每只股票进行折现现金流估值。如果你想找到其他股票的计算方法，只需在这里搜索。