Twenty years ago, Microsoft Corp. (ticker: MSFT) was the most valuable company in the world. © (Getty Images) Vancouver, BC, Canada - Oct 13, 2019: The Microsoft logo is seen on the facade of CF Pacific Centre in downtown Vancouver.
二十年前，微软公司（股票代码：MSFT）是世界上最有价值的公司。 ©（Getty Images）加拿大不列颠哥伦比亚省温哥华-2019年10月13日：在温哥华市中心CF太平洋中心的外墙上可以看到Microsoft徽标。
Today, along with competitors Apple (AAPL) and Amazon.com (AMZN), Microsoft is worth around $1.5 trillion, and tech titans like Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL), Facebook (FB) and Netflix (NFLX) are not too far behind. The company that brought you Windows may not be alone at the top anymore, but Microsoft is far from obsolete and continues to remain relevant in markets around the world.
如今，连同竞争对手苹果公司（AAPL）和亚马逊公司（AMZN），微软的市值约为1.5万亿美元，科技巨头如Alphabet（GOOG，GOOGL），Facebook（FB）和Netflix（NFLX）也相差不远。为您带来Windows的公司可能不再是独占at头的公司了，但是Microsoft绝不是过时的，并且继续在世界各地的市场中占有重要地位。
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Is Microsoft stock still a "buy" in mid-2020? Here's a look at the biggest pros and cons associated with MSFT.Microsoft Stock at a Glance
微软股票在2020年中期仍然是“买入”吗？这是与MSFT相关的最大利弊的一瞥。
Rising to prominence in the late 1970s and early 1980s, Microsoft's software became the industry standard for early PCs made by the likes of IBM (IBM) and Apple. This gave Microsoft a crucial first-mover advantage.
微软的软件在1970年代末和1980年代初迅速崛起，成为IBM（IBM）和Apple之类的早期PC的行业标准。这为微软提供了至关重要的先发优势。
By the 1990s, computers became small enough and economical enough for the average American household or typical elementary school to afford one. The end market wasn't just corporations and academia anymore, propelling Microsoft further.
到1990年代，计算机已经变得足够小巧且经济，足以让普通的美国家庭或典型的小学负担得起。最终市场不再只是公司和学术界，这进一步推动了微软。
As home computers became commonplace, so too was the operating system they used: Windows, the pre-installed, Microsoft-made software. Consumers loved the Windows user experience and its practical capabilities, especially the Microsoft Office suite of applications such as Word, Excel and PowerPoint.
随着家用计算机变得司空见惯，它们使用的操作系统也变得越来越普遍：Windows是预安装的Microsoft制造的软件。消费者喜欢Windows用户体验及其实用功能，特别是Word，Excel和PowerPoint等Microsoft Office应用程序套件。
By earning a hefty licensing fee on each computer sold with Windows and Office, Microsoft was able to achieve previously unimaginable scale over a short period.
通过在每台装有Windows和Office的计算机上赚取高额的许可费，Microsoft能够在短时间内实现以前难以想象的规模。
A few decades later and Windows is still a major cash cow for Microsoft. But the company has also been able to diversify, and its most exciting future growth prospects are expected to come from other areas like cloud computing, social networking, remote work apps and video games.Pros of Buying Microsoft Stock
几十年后，Windows仍然是微软的主要摇钱树。但是该公司还能够实现多元化发展，其最令人兴奋的未来增长前景预计将来自其他领域，例如云计算，社交网络，远程工作应用程序和视频游戏。
There have been three CEOs since Microsoft was founded in 1975: co-founder Bill Gates (1975-2000), Steve Ballmer (2000-2014) and Satya Nadella. Gates' tenure was characterized by a company that experienced virtually unprecedented growth, making him the richest person in the world by the 1990s. Ballmer's tenure was a struggle, as Microsoft failed to stay at the forefront of tech, largely missing the boat on huge growth industries it was perfectly positioned to dominate like smartphones, search engines and social networks.
自1975年微软成立以来，已经有三位首席执行官：联合创始人比尔·盖茨（1975-2000），史蒂夫·鲍尔默（2000-2014）和萨蒂亚·纳德拉。盖茨的任期特点是一家公司经历了前所未有的增长，使他在1990年代成为全球首富。鲍尔默（Ballmer）的任职经历了艰辛的奋斗，因为微软未能保持在技术的最前沿，很大程度上错过了在庞大的增长型行业中的领先地位，该行业完全处于智能手机，搜索引擎和社交网络等主导地位。
Since 2014, Microsoft has been led by Nadella, a period that thus far has been characterized by a return to Wall Street prominence, outperformance, revenue diversification and its biggest theme: cloud computing.
自2014年以来，微软一直由纳德拉（Nadella）领导，这一时期迄今的特点是重返华尔街的知名度，业绩超越，收入多元化以及其最大主题：云计算。
Today, one of Microsoft's biggest "pros" is essentially the same as what it was 20 years ago: The company has an unbelievable "moat," a high barrier to entry. Many users around the world have learned everything they know about computers using Microsoft's Windows operating system.
如今，微软最大的“专业人士”之一与20年前的情形基本相同：该公司拥有令人难以置信的“护城河”，这是进入市场的高门槛。世界各地的许多用户已经了解了有关使用Microsoft Windows操作系统的计算机的所有知识。
If you don't have an Apple computer, Windows is by far the operating system of choice for manufacturers and consumers alike, holding the majority of the desktop market share worldwide.
如果您没有Apple计算机，那么Windows无疑是制造商和消费者都选择的操作系统，它占据了全球台式机市场的大部分份额。
But Microsoft doesn't have to release a new version of Windows just to profit from Windows. In the fourth quarter of its fiscal 2020 year, Microsoft's Windows original equipment manufacturer (OEM) revenue increased by 7%.
但是微软不必为了从Windows中获利而发布新版本的Windows。在2020财年第四季度，微软的Windows原始设备制造商（OEM）收入增长了7％。
Amid the pandemic, the tech company's Windows OEM non-Pro revenue increased 34% thanks to consumer demand driven by remote work needs for employees staying out of the office and remote learning scenarios, illustrating the strength of the Windows brand and the value of the product.
在大流行中，这家科技公司的Windows OEM非专业版收入增长了34％，这要归功于消费者的需求，这是因为远程工作需求使员工不在办公室和进行远程学习，这说明了Windows品牌的实力和产品价值。
Windows is part of a business segment Microsoft labels "More Personal Computing," and the segment also accounts for the Xbox and associated services, sales of the Surface tablet and advertising revenue from Bing.
Windows是Microsoft标签为“更多个人计算”的业务部门的一部分，该部门还计入Xbox和相关服务，Surface平板电脑的销售以及来自Bing的广告收入。
Besides Bing, a perennial loser lagging behind Google's search engine, More Personal Computing saw great success in the fourth quarter. People quarantined at home sought escape in video games, sending gaming revenue up 64% and Xbox content and services revenue up 65%; meanwhile, stay-at-home orders also encouraged consumers to snag a Surface tablet for remote work and education, resulting in a 28% increase in Surface revenue.
除了必应（Bing）一直是Google的搜索引擎之后的长期失败者，“更多个人计算”（More Personal Computing）在第四季度取得了巨大的成功。在家中隔离的人们寻求逃避视频游戏，使游戏收入增长了64％，Xbox内容和服务收入增长了65％。同时，在家中的订单也鼓励消费者抢购Surface平板电脑进行远程工作和教育，从而使Surface收入增加了28％。
Combined with Windows, these diverse businesses propelled revenue in the More Personal Computing segment up 14% in a quarter when the vast majority of companies around the world could only dream of such returns. But the big growth driver at Microsoft right now is the cloud.
结合Windows，这些多样化的业务推动了更多个人计算部门的收入在一个季度中增长了14％，而全世界绝大多数公司只能梦想得到这样的回报。但是，微软目前最大的增长动力是云。
The second major "pro" to buying Microsoft stock is its growing focus on the cloud. The company does this in two ways: First, it offers its suite of productivity applications, Microsoft Office, as a cloud-based "software as a service" offering. Instead of earning a one-time cut when someone buys a Windows- and Office-equipped computer, consumers now pay Microsoft $99.99 a year to use Office across all devices.
购买微软股票的第二个主要“专业人士”是其对云的关注日益增长。该公司以两种方式做到这一点：首先，它提供了一套生产力应用程序Microsoft Office，它是基于云的“软件即服务”产品。如今，消费者无需支付一次性费用即可购买配备Windows和Office的计算机，而是向微软支付每年99.99美元的费用，以在所有设备上使用Office。
The second way Microsoft is cashing in on the cloud is with its cloud computing offering Azure. It's the second-largest player in the rapidly growing field, trailing only Amazon and its Amazon Web Services. In the fourth quarter, Microsoft Azure revenue grew by 47% year over year, fueling the 19% increase in server products and cloud services revenue year over year.
微软在云上获利的第二种方式是使用其云计算产品Azure。它是快速增长领域中的第二大玩家，仅次于Amazon及其Amazon Web Services。第四季度，Microsoft Azure收入同比增长47％，带动服务器产品和云服务收入同比增长19％。
But the strength of Azure and Microsoft's cloud services was enough to propel the Intelligent Cloud segment to 17% revenue growth this past quarter, and that growth will likely only continue thanks to key contracts like Microsoft's recent $10 billion deal with the U.S. Department of Defense.
但是Azure和微软云服务的实力足以推动智能云部门在过去一个季度中实现17％的收入增长，而且这种增长可能只会持续下去，这要归功于诸如微软最近与美国国防部达成的100亿美元交易之类的重要合同。
The cloud, personal computing and Microsoft's final segment, Productivity and Business Processes, all enjoyed strong revenue growth in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2020 and combined to push Microsoft's fourth-quarter revenue up 13% year over year. As for the fiscal year itself, Microsoft's revenue increased by 14% year over year, while earnings per share increased by 14%, too.
云，个人计算以及微软的最终部门生产力和业务流程在2020财年第四季度均实现了强劲的收入增长，加在一起推动微软第四季度的收入同比增长13％。至于财政年度本身，微软的收入同比增长了14％，而每股收益也增长了14％。
MSFT shareholders who have spent 2020 watching their portfolios take a roller coaster ride must be relieved that their investments include a company as stable as Microsoft. This brings up the final pro for investing in the house that Gates built: stability.
曾花2020年观察其投资组合过山车的MSFT股东必须放心，他们的投资包括一家像Microsoft一样稳定的公司。这为盖茨建造的房屋投资带来了最后一个好处：稳定性。
The risk you take on by investing in Microsoft is fairly low for long-term investors. Not only is Microsoft notably absent from the U.S. government's looming antitrust investigations into Big Tech peers Facebook, Alphabet and Amazon, but Microsoft is one of just two U.S. companies that all major credit rating agencies actually consider to be a lower default risk than the federal government.
对于长期投资者而言，您投资Microsoft所承担的风险相当低。不仅美国明显不在美国政府对大型科技公司Facebook，Alphabet和亚马逊进行的反托拉斯调查中，而且微软是所有主要信用评级机构实际上认为比联邦政府更低的违约风险的仅有的两家美国公司之一。
That's right: Microsoft, along with Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), is more likely to pay back your loan than Uncle Sam. It's hard to be much more financially secure than that.Cons of Buying Microsoft Stock
没错：微软和强生（JNJ）相比，山姆大叔更有可能还清您的贷款。很难在财务上做到这一点。购买微软股票的缺点
The "cons" to buying Microsoft stock? Those are a bit harder to find.
购买微软股票的“缺点”？那些很难找到。
The most glaring risk might seem trite, but in simple terms, it's that MSFT stock may be too high right now. By traditional metrics like the price-earnings ratio (PE) and price-earnings to growth ratio (PEG), Microsoft is trading at richer valuations than the S&P 500.
最明显的风险似乎有些陈词滥调，但简单来说，就是MSFT库存目前可能过高。按照市盈率（PE）和市盈率与成长率（PEG）等传统指标，微软的估值比标准普尔500指数高。
There's nothing wrong with that on its face. Most growth stocks trade for higher multiples than the market at large, for the rational reason that earnings are expected to grow more quickly than the wider market.
脸上没有任何问题。大多数成长股的市盈率要比整体市盈率高，这是有理由的理由是，预期收益的增长将比整个市场更快。
The question, however, is whether a trillion-dollar company like Microsoft can still be expected to grow at a quick enough rate to justify its PE of 35. Back in the '80s and '90s, it wasn't unusual for earnings to double every two years or so, and it's much easier to go from numbers like $100 million to $200 million than $1 trillion to $2 trillion. There's only so much money, and so much growth, in the world – especially considering the FAANG (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Google) stocks that are constantly vying for Microsoft's business.
但是，问题是，是否仍可以期望像微软这样的万亿美元的公司以足够快的速度增长以证明其35倍的市盈率呢？在80年代和90年代，收益翻番并不罕见每两年左右，要从1亿美元增加到2亿美元，要比1万亿美元增加到2万亿美元要容易得多。世界上只有这么多钱，也只有这么多增长，特别是考虑到FAANG（Facebook，Apple，Amazon，Netflix，Google）的股票一直在争夺微软的业务。
Speaking of FAANG stocks, there's another potential risk to keep abreast of: If a competitor develops a breakthrough in something like quantum computing, artificial intelligence, smart home devices or entertainment where Microsoft should've been competing more aggressively, that's a missed opportunity. But Nadella is far less likely to miss those massive paradigm shifts than the less technologically sophisticated Ballmer.
说到FAANG的股票，还有一个潜在的风险需要跟上：如果竞争对手在诸如量子计算，人工智能，智能家居设备或娱乐等领域取得突破，而微软本应进行更积极的竞争，那将是一个错失的机会。但是，纳德拉要比那些技术上不太成熟的鲍尔默少得多地错过那些大规模的范式转换。
That said, Microsoft faces stiff competition in nearly every industry in which it dabbles. Surface sales may increase, but it's doubtful they'll ever eclipse the iPad. Google is unlikely to lose out to Bing anytime soon. Azure is steadily gaining ground, but Amazon still remains the market leader. There are always new competitors ready to take on Microsoft's dominance – Slack (WORK) is challenging Microsoft Teams, while the new Xbox Series X will face off against Sony's (SNE) new PlayStation 5 this holiday season.
也就是说，微软几乎涉足的每个行业都面临着激烈的竞争。表面销售可能会增加，但是否有可能使iPad黯然失色。 Google不太可能很快输给Bing。 Azure稳步增长，但亚马逊仍然是市场领导者。总是有新的竞争对手准备占领微软的统治地位-Slack（WORK）挑战着Microsoft Teams，而新的Xbox Series X将在这个假日季节与索尼（SNE）的新PlayStation 5对抗。
The key to Microsoft's ongoing success remains Windows and the Office suite of products. That was true in the 1990s, and it is still true in 2020. As long as Microsoft remains dominant in those markets, it will be a viable company with a bright future ahead – but investors should always be wary of new competitors lurking just over the horizon.The Bottom Line on Microsoft Stock
Microsoft不断取得成功的关键仍然是Windows和Office产品套件。在1990年代确实如此，在2020年仍然如此。只要微软在这些市场中保持主导地位，它将是一家有生存能力的公司，并拥有光明的未来-但投资者应始终警惕潜伏在新市场的新竞争对手。地平线。微软股票的底线
The fact that the biggest risks associated with Microsoft stock are mostly just the usual risks associated with buying any stock is a remarkable statement.
与微软股票相关的最大风险大部分只是与购买股票相关的通常风险这一事实，这是一个了不起的声明。
For a company of its size to not have extreme legal or antitrust woes or hardcore competition threatening its bread and butter is remarkable. The fact that its financial security is considered safer than U.S. bonds is almost without parallel.
对于一家规模如此之大的公司而言，没有极端的法律或反托拉斯问题或激烈的竞争威胁其面包和黄油的情况就非同寻常。其金融安全被认为比美国债券更安全的事实几乎是无与伦比的。
Microsoft has a great moat in an industry that will almost certainly still be around a decade from now; on top of that, at the time of this writing, it pays a modest 0.96% dividend. That's slightly more than the 10-year Treasury at 0.6% right now. So if you can "sit on your hands" with 10-year Treasurys, you might as well buy some Microsoft – you'll get the dividend, and likely some sizable capital gains – unless something goes horribly wrong, or Nadella decides to channel his inner Ballmer.
微软在这个行业中有着巨大的护城河，几乎可以肯定，它距现在还有十年左右的时间。最重要的是，在撰写本文时，它只支付了0.96％的适度股息。这略高于目前10年期美国国债的0.6％。因此，如果您可以“坐下来”购买10年期美国国债，则不妨购买一些Microsoft –您将获得股息，并可能获得可观的资本收益–除非出现严重错误，或者Nadella决定转手内部鲍尔默。
When you look at the risk versus reward, Microsoft is a phenomenal stock to own.
当您看风险与回报时，Microsoft是拥有的非凡股票。