SEOUL (Reuters) - Some economic reforms that emerged after North Korea’s Kim Jong Un took power are under threat as his government responds to a series of crises by reasserting state controls, casting doubt on one of the young leader’s signature issues.
路透首尔9月23日电(记者Kim Jong Un) - - -朝鲜政府为应对一系列危机重新确立国家控制，一些经济改革面临威胁，令这位年轻领导人的标志性议题之一受到质疑。
As Kim welcomed thousands of delegates to a rare congress of the Worker’s Party this week in Pyongyang, North Korea faces perhaps the most challenging environment since a famine devastated the country in the 1990s.
本周，金正恩在平壤欢迎数千名代表参加劳动党罕见的代表大会。与此同时，朝鲜正面临着自上世纪90年代饥荒肆虐该国以来最具挑战性的环境。
With North Korea’s economy already under siege from international sanctions imposed over its nuclear weapons programme, last year the country was further buffeted by damaging floods and an economically devastating lockdown aimed at preventing a coronavirus outbreak.
由于朝鲜的经济已经受到因其核武器计划而受到的国际制裁的围攻，去年该国又受到破坏性洪水和旨在防止冠状病毒爆发的封锁的进一步打击。
Kim has gone from opening well-stocked department stores and planning tourist resorts in 2019 to publicly apologising for failing to reach his economic goals.
金正恩已经从2019年开设库存充足的百货商店和规划旅游胜地，变成了为未能实现经济目标而公开道歉。
In the face of those crises, the congress is set to announce a new five-year economic plan, with many observers predicting an agenda aimed at cementing recent efforts to reimpose central control over more of the economy.
面对这些危机，全国人大将宣布新的五年经济计划，许多观察人士预计，该计划的议程将巩固最近的努力，即重新对经济的更多领域实施中央控制。
Kim has made the economy a central aspect of his rule, and since he came to power in 2011, cellphones, solar panels, and other consumer items have proliferated.
金正恩把经济作为其统治的核心部分，自2011年掌权以来，手机、太阳能电池板和其他消费品的数量激增。
Some initiatives, including special economic zones and tourist resorts, were government led.
包括经济特区和旅游度假区在内的一些举措是由政府主导的。
Others, such as a loosening of controls over private markets and some entrepreneurial activity, were often simply the government co-opting or turning a blind eye to existing trends.
而其他政策，如放松对私人市场和一些创业活动的控制，往往只是政府拉拢或对现有趋势视而不见。
While on paper those policies still stand, there are signs the government is reasserting itself in ways that effectively roll back or curtail some of those reforms, according to defectors, analysts, and entrepreneurs with experience working in the North.
脱北者、分析人士和有在朝鲜工作经验的企业家表示，尽管理论上这些政策仍然有效，但有迹象表明，政府正在以有效地取消或缩减其中一些改革的方式重新确立自己的地位。
“Under such a situation, the instinct is to impose a ration economy with the state controlling and directing the flow of resources,” said Geoffrey See, whose non-profit group Choson Exchange flourished during North Korea’s entrepreneurial expansion under Kim.ECONOMIC RESTRICTIONS
“在这种情况下，人们的本能是实行一种配给经济，由国家控制和指导资源的流动，”杰弗里·西泽(Geoffrey See)说。他的非营利组织朝鲜交易所(Choson Exchange)在金正恩领导下的朝鲜企业扩张期间蓬勃发展。经济的限制
But with border closures and restrictions on domestic travel to counter coronavirus, trade with China has plummeted and traders have struggled to maintain the logistics networks necessary to supply their businesses.
但随着边境关闭和对国内旅行的限制，与中国的贸易大幅下降，贸易商难以维持为其企业供应所需的物流网络。
A foreign diplomat with contacts in Pyongyang said shelves of grocery stores that had come to filled with imported products early in Kim’s reign are increasingly bare.
一位在平壤有联系的外国外交官表示，在金正恩统治早期，杂货店的货架上堆满了进口产品，现在却越来越空。
Economic policy is one area where there appears to be real factions within the North Korean government.
在朝鲜政府内部，经济政策似乎是一个真正存在派系的领域。
Some leaders are urging more openness to at least some market-style reforms while other more conservative elements seek to retain more control, said Sokeel Park, of Liberty in North Korea, which supports defectors.
支持脱北者的朝鲜自由组织(Liberty in North Korea)的Sokeel Park表示，一些领导人敦促朝鲜对至少部分市场式改革采取更开放的态度，而其他更保守的人士则寻求保留更多控制权。
“The pandemic has forced the ball into the conservative faction’s court and allowed them to do everything they want,” he said. “That may be a legacy that outlasts the pandemic itself.”
他说:“这场大流行把球逼到了保守派的手里，让他们为所欲为。”“这可能是比大流行本身更持久的遗产。”
However, Kim knows how important the private markets, consumer items, and business ventures have become to many North Koreans and is unlikely to fully unwind them, Kang Mi-jin, a defector who reports for Daily NK, a Seoul-based website that releases news and information based on sources inside North Korea.
然而，脱北者Kang Mi-jin (Kang Mi-jin，音译)知道私人市场、消费品和商业项目对许多朝鲜人来说有多重要，他不太可能完全放开它们。Kang Mi-jin是首尔网站Daily NK的记者，该网站根据朝鲜内部消息来源发布新闻和信息。
Instead, the congress will likely be used to exert greater party leadership, she said.
她说，相反，国大党可能会被用来发挥更大的党的领导作用。
Even if Kim stops short of actually rolling back reforms, an increasingly assertive government could have a long-term impact, Park said.
朴槿惠说，即使金正日没有真正停止改革，一个越来越自信的政府也可能产生长期影响。
“Given that people are relying on markets to survive, the government can’t and won’t get rid of them, however the activity and the prosperity possible through them could be severely diminished,” he said, with more taxes, kickbacks or regulations potentially imposed.CAPITALISING ON A CRISIS?
他说:“考虑到人们依赖市场生存，政府不能也不会摆脱市场，但市场活动和通过市场可能带来的繁荣可能会严重减少。”他还说，可能会施加更多的税收、回扣或监管。利用危机?
While North Korea’s self-imposed border closures and domestic travel limits appear driven by real concern over the coronavirus, other decisions merely seize upon opportunities created by the crisis, said Christopher Green, a North Korea expert at the University of Leiden in the Netherlands.
荷兰莱顿大学(University of Leiden)的朝鲜问题专家克里斯托弗·格林(Christopher Green)表示，尽管朝鲜自行关闭边境和限制国内旅行似乎是出于对冠状病毒的真正担忧，但其他决定只是利用了危机创造的机会。
“Pyongyang has taken additional steps that have less to do with the immediate concerns of pandemic control, and more to do with rolling back some of the reforms it has implemented since Kim Jong Un came to power,” he wrote in a recent report for NK Pro, a website that monitors North Korea.
“平壤已经采取了额外的措施,疫情控制的直接关注,更与回滚已实施的一些改革金正恩上台以来,”他在近期的一份报告中写道,NK Pro,一个网站,监视朝鲜。
Some of the measures so far include exchange controls for diplomats and crackdowns on the activities of currency traders in borderland regions, including the apparent execution of one currency trader, according to South Korean officials.
据韩国官员说，迄今为止的一些措施包括对外交官的外汇管制，以及打击边境地区外汇交易员的活动，包括显然处决了一名外汇交易员。
In the unofficial market in capital Pyongyang, North Korean won’s value has risen some 17.5% and 15.2% against the dollar and Chinese yuan over the three past months, according to data compiled by Daily NK.
据Daily NK编制的数据，在朝鲜首都平壤的非官方市场上，过去三个月，韩圆兑美元和人民币分别升值了约17.5%和15.2%。
Authorities restricted the use of the dollar in order to boost domestic demand, sending the won soaring and causing problems for residents who didn’t already have reserves, Ha Tae-keung, a South Korean lawmaker and member of the parliamentary intelligence committee, said after being briefed by the South’s spy agency.
韩国议员、国会情报委员会成员Ha Tae-keung在听取了韩国情报机构的简报后说，当局限制美元的使用是为了提振国内需求，这导致韩圆飙升，并给那些没有外汇储备的居民带来了问题。
Late last year North Korea crafted new regulations to give the ruling Workers’ Party greater involvement in and control over consumer markets, reported Daily NK.
据《朝鲜日报》报道，去年年底，朝鲜制定了新的规定，让执政的劳动党更多地参与并控制消费市场。
“These changes ultimately broaden the ability of the Central Committee to monitor and exert control over the entire civilian economy,” the site said.
“这些变化最终扩大了中央监督和控制整个民用经济的能力，”该网站称。
And smugglers, who analysts say are essential if North Korea is to alleviate the worst social consequences of the border closure, have instead been accused of anti-state actions.
分析人士说，如果朝鲜想减轻关闭边境带来的最严重的社会后果，走私者是必不可少的。相反，走私者被指责为反国家行为。
“These are the actions of a regime that is using the pretext of a demonstrably serious crisis to reassert political dominance over the economy — a dominance that had been slipping for quite some time, until a pandemic came along,” Green said.
格林说:“这是一个政权的行动，它以一场明显严重的危机为借口，重申对经济的政治主导地位——这种主导地位在相当长一段时间内一直在下滑，直到一场大流行病出现。”