BRASILIA, Feb 19 (Reuters) - Inflation expectations are rising in Brazil, with a growing number of economists raising their 2021 forecasts above the central bank's target as strong commodity prices and the persistently weak exchange rate show little sign of turning.

路透巴西利亚2月19日电- - -巴西通胀预期正在上升，越来越多分析师将2021年通胀预估调高至央行目标之上，因强劲的大宗商品价格和持续疲弱的汇率几乎没有扭转的迹象。

Brazil's real remains under heavy pressure, its 4% fall against the dollar so far this year and 30% slump last year both among the steepest of any currency in the world, pushing up the prices of imports and foodstuffs in particular.

巴西雷亚尔仍然承受着巨大的压力，今年迄今为止，雷亚尔兑美元汇率下跌了4%，去年又下跌了30%，这两种货币都是世界上跌幅最大的货币，推高了进口商品的价格，尤其是食品价格。

Banco Itau's economics team, led by chief economist Mario Mesquita, on Friday raised its 2021 inflation forecast to 3.8% from 3.6%, citing strong industrial price pressures.

伊塔乌银行(Banco Itau)首席经济学家马斯奎塔(Mario Mesquita)领导的经济学团队上周五将2021年的通胀预期从3.6%上调至3.8%，理由是工业价格压力巨大。

"We emphasize that the (upward) pressure of industrial costs is also being seen in other economies, given the robust demand recovery after coronavirus shock and surging commodity prices," Mesquita wrote.

“我们强调，鉴于冠状病毒冲击和大宗商品价格飙升后需求强劲复苏，其他经济体也存在工业成本(上升)压力，”梅斯奎塔写道。

Solange Srour, chief economist at Credit Suisse, revised her year-end forecast to 4.5% from 4.2%. She also noted the inflationary impulse from deteriorating public finances as the government extends emergency cash transfers to the poor.

瑞士信贷(Credit Suisse)首席经济学家索兰格•斯鲁尔(Solange Srour)将她对年底的预测从4.2%上调至4.5%。她还指出，随着政府向穷人发放紧急现金转移，不断恶化的公共财政引发了通货膨胀。

"The balance of risks for our inflation forecast remains biased to the upside," she wrote in a note on Friday, adding that inflation will peak at 7.1% in May.

她在上周五的一份报告中写道:“我们对通胀预期的风险权衡仍偏向于上行。”她补充说，通胀率将在5月份见顶，达到7.1%。

The central bank's year-end inflation target is 3.75%, with a 1.5-percentage-point margin of error on either side. The bank's interest rate-setting committee, known as "Copom," meets next month, and pressure to deliver the first rate hike since 2015 is mounting.

央行的年底通胀目标为3.75%，两者的误差幅度均为1.5个百分点。央行利率制定委员会(简称“Copom”)将于下月召开会议，自2015年以来首次加息的压力越来越大。

That is what Credit Suisse's Solange and economists at Barclays expect. Economists at Morgan Stanley think Copom will start the tightening cycle in the second quarter, but acknowledge a "high probability of a rate hike" in March.

这正是瑞士信贷(Credit Suisse)的索兰格(Solange)和巴克莱(Barclays)经济学家的预期。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)经济学家认为，Copom将在第二季度启动紧缩周期，但承认“很有可能在3月份加息”。

"Inflation expectations are on the rise, and we expect the central bank to lift its inflation forecast under its base case," they wrote in a note this week.

他们在本周的一份报告中写道:“通胀预期正在上升，我们预计央行将在其基本情况下上调通胀预期。”

($1 = 5.40 reais)

(1美元= 5.40雷亚尔)

(Reporting by Jamie McGeever; editing by Jonathan Oatis)

(Jamie McGeever报道;Jonathan Oatis编辑)