(Bloomberg) -- The damage control work at Credit Suisse Group AG from a pair of disasters that stunned the banking world will soon give way to the question of how the 165-year-old institution will rehabilitate its business and reputation.
(彭博社)瑞士信贷集团(Credit Suisse Group AG)在两起震惊银行业的灾难中所做的损害控制工作，很快将让位于这个有着165年历史的机构将如何恢复其业务和声誉的问题。
A new chairman, Lloyds Banking Group Plc chief Antonio Horta-Osorio, arrives in three weeks, to begin the search for answers after the fiascoes involving Archegos Capital Management, a New York-based family office, and supply-chain lender Greensill Capital, which have already wiped out more than a year of profits.
劳埃德银行集团(Lloyds Banking Group Plc)新任董事长奥尔塔-奥索里奥(Antonio Horta-Osorio)将在三周后上任，开始寻找答案。此前，纽约的家族理财公司Archegos Capital Management和供应链贷款机构Greensill Capital都出现了问题，这两家公司已经让一年多的利润全部缩水。
Horta-Osorio has a few possible courses, including: a housecleaning that shrinks the Credit Suisse balance sheet and reduces capital allocated to the investment bank; selling parts of the business to deepen its focus on wealth management and rebuild capital; acquiescing to an acquirer; or merging with its larger neighbor in Zurich, UBS Group AG.
奥尔塔-奥索里奥有几项可能的课程，包括:“大扫除”，收缩瑞信的资产负债表，减少分配给投行的资本;出售部分业务，以加深对财富管理的关注，并重建资本;默许收购方的;或是与苏黎世的瑞银集团(UBS Group AG)合并。
With a 4.4 billion franc ($4.7 billion) writedown tied to its losses from Archegos, the fallout from the collapse of Greensill Capital, and a dividend cut and suspension in share buybacks, frustrations among stakeholders are boiling over. Speculation is rife over the future of the investment bank, the asset-management unit, and the fate of top executives.
由于来自Archegos的亏损导致公司减记44亿瑞士法郎(合47亿美元)，加之Greensill Capital破产、股息削减和股票回购暂停，股东们的不满情绪正在高涨。关于投行、资产管理部门和高管命运的猜测甚广。
Here’s how things could go, according to interviews with a dozen bankers, analysts, consultants and executives who asked not to be named discussing hypothetical scenarios and nonpublic matters:
根据对十几位银行家、分析师、咨询师和高管的采访，事情可能会这样发展。这些人在讨论假设情况和非公开事项时要求不具名:
Following consultations with executives and staff, the new chairman’s first move could involve the 440 billion-franc asset-management unit. The business is too small to compete globally and its leaders are distracted by the Greensill fallout. While a variety of outcomes is possible, including a partial sale or listing, selling the entire unit could fetch as much as 5 billion francs -- a figure based on previous deals in the industry.
在与公司高管和员工磋商后，新董事长的第一个举措可能涉及这家4,400亿瑞士法郎的资产管理部门。这家公司规模太小，无法在全球展开竞争，而且它的领导者也被格林希尔的影响分散了注意力。虽然有多种可能的结果，包括部分出售或上市，但出售整个部门的价格可能高达50亿法郎，这一数字是基于该行业此前的交易。
Allianz SE is among firms that have signaled interest in Credit Suisse’s asset-management business, according to people briefed on the discussions. BlackRock Inc. is also among potential buyers, Reuters reported Friday. Spokespeople for Allianz and BlackRock declined to comment.
据了解讨论情况的人士说，安联保险(Allianz SE)是表示对瑞信资产管理业务感兴趣的公司之一。据路透社(Reuters)周五报道，贝莱德(BlackRock Inc.)也是潜在买家之一。安联和贝莱德的发言人均拒绝置评。
A Credit Suisse spokeswoman said the bank has no plans to sell all or part of its asset-management business.
瑞信发言人说，该行没有出售全部或部分资产管理业务的计划。
Horta-Osorio’s initial decisions could depend on whether the Swiss regulator Finma requires Credit Suisse to hold more capital against its credit or operational risks, as it did after UBS lost about $2 billion on unauthorized trades by London-based trader Kweku Adoboli a decade ago.
Horta-Osorio最初的决定可能取决于瑞士监管机构Finma是否要求瑞信持有更多资本，以应对其信贷或操作风险。10年前，瑞银因伦敦交易员奎库•阿多博利(Kweku Adoboli)未经授权的交易而损失约20亿美元后，瑞士金融市场监管局就要求瑞信持有更多资本。
For now, one piece of good news for Credit Suisse is that it remains financially solid. Its capital ratios are only slightly below the average for European peers and above the regulatory minimum.
目前，对瑞信来说，一个好消息是它的财务状况依然稳固。其资本充足率仅略低于欧洲同行的平均水平，并高于监管规定的最低要求。
With capital largely intact, an investment bank that is still competitive in areas such as advisory, a top wealth-management business and a profitable Swiss operation, Horta-Osorio could take a fresh crack at what his predecessors tried: shrinking the investment bank -- offloading some or all of the prime brokerage, marrying it more directly to wealth managemen, exiting some credit trading, and reducing exposure to leveraged finance. Horta-Osorio couldn’t be reached for comment.
由于资本基本完好无损，在咨询、顶级财富管理业务和盈利的瑞士业务等领域仍有竞争力的投资银行，奥尔塔-奥索里奥可以对其前任尝试过的做法进行新的尝试:缩减投资银行业务——剥离部分或全部机构经纪业务，更直接地将其与财富管理业务结合起来，退出一些信贷交易，减少杠杆融资业务。记者无法联系到奥尔塔-奥索里奥置评。
A more radical option would be a complete exit or sale of the investment bank, a move that has proven historically difficult and could limit products available to ultra-rich wealth-management clients.
一个更激进的选择是完全退出或出售投资银行业务，事实证明，这样做历来困难重重，可能会限制超级富豪理财客户能够获得的产品。
Hostile takeovers in banking are rare but situations like the one Credit Suisse is in are equally unusual.
在银行业，敌意收购很少见，但像瑞信这样的情况也很少见。
Trying to game out the next European banking merger
试图策划欧洲银行业的下一次合并
The market is valuing it at about half of its book value, and U.S. giants JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Morgan Stanley have signaled interest in asset-gathering businesses.
市场对该公司的估值约为其账面价值的一半，美国巨头摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase & Co.)和摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)已表示对资产收集业务感兴趣。
Bankers were running the numbers on Credit Suisse as a potential acquisition target even before the Archegos fallout. Deutsche Bank AG could explore a deal to create a European investment-banking champion with one of the biggest wealth managers in the world. BNP Paribas SA, one of the few European banks able to do a deal, could scale up quickly in Asia while expanding its investment-banking business.
甚至在“Archegos”倒闭之前，银行家们就已经在计算瑞信(Credit Suisse)作为潜在收购目标的数据。德意志银行(Deutsche Bank AG)可能与世界上最大的财富管理公司之一探讨达成一项交易，创建一家欧洲投资银行冠军企业。法国巴黎银行(BNP Paribas SA)是少数几家能够达成交易的欧洲银行之一，它可能会在亚洲迅速扩大规模，同时扩大其投行业务。
For long-suffering Credit Suisse shareholders, a sale or breakup could be a way to finally make returns on the investment. It’s been a lost decade under Chairman Urs Rohner. Rohner raised billions of capital while the share price lost 70% during his tenure.
对于长期受苦的瑞信股东来说，出售或分拆可能是最终获得投资回报的一种方式。在主席乌尔斯·罗内尔的领导下，这是一个失落的十年。罗内尔在任职期间筹集了数十亿美元的资金，但公司股价却下跌了70%。
The bank could also attract attention from an activist investor, who could pressure the board to accelerate their reviews of personnel and strategy.
该银行还可能吸引一位维权投资者的注意，后者可能会向董事会施压，要求其加快对人员和战略的审查。
“A potential sale of Credit Suisse’s $450 billion-plus asset management unit for $3.7-$4 billion may make sense, as the unit likely faces a charge tied to Greensill-related risks after an unrelated $458 million 4Q impairment. An implied price of less than 1% of assets appears low to midrange vs. recent manager deals, and may reflect an operational discount. The structure of legal liabilities matters. Multiple bidders, reported by Reuters, could boost the price, helping to replenish capital.
瑞士信贷(Credit Suisse)可能以37 - 40亿美元的价格出售旗下4500亿美元以上的资产管理部门，因为该部门在第四季度4.58亿美元的不相关资产减值后，可能面临与格林希尔相关的风险相关的支出。低于1%的资产隐含价格与最近的经理人交易相比似乎处于中低水平，并且可能反映了经营上的折扣。法律责任的结构很重要。据路透社报道，多个竞标者可能会提高价格，帮助补充资本。
-- Alison Williams, BI senior banking analyst
——艾莉森·威廉姆斯，BI高级银行分析师
Click here to read the research.
点击这里阅读研究。
UBS and Credit Suisse explored a merger last year, people familiar with the discussions have said. The main rationale would be cost savings that could be in the billions.
知情人士透露，瑞银和瑞信去年曾探讨过合并事宜。这样做的主要理由是可以节省数十亿美元的成本。
Any deal would be complex and would means years of integration work. Credit Suisse would have to spin off its Swiss unit first for antitrust reasons. The combined bank would add even more scale in wealth and asset management and could also regain global heft in investment banking.
任何交易都将是复杂的，并意味着多年的整合工作。出于反垄断的原因，瑞信必须首先剥离其瑞士业务。合并后的银行将进一步扩大财富和资产管理业务的规模，并可能重新获得投资银行业务的全球影响力。
There are pitfalls. UBS has scaled back its fixed-income business. A combination with Credit Suisse would be a complete reversal from that and it is unclear whether the Swiss regulator -- which itself going through a leadership transition -- would want an even bigger investment-banking balance sheet after the UBS bailout a decade ago.
有陷阱。瑞银已经缩减了固定收益业务。与瑞信合并将完全扭转这一局面，目前尚不清楚10年前瑞银接受纾困后，正在经历领导层换届的瑞士监管机构是否希望扩大投行资产负债表。