Fulgent Genetics(NASDAQ:FLGT) looks poised to significantly beat its year-end investor estimates. In this Motley Fool Live video recorded on November 15, Motley Fool contributors Keith Speights and Brian Orelli answer a viewer question about whether this means Fulgent is undervalued.
Fulgent Genetics(纳斯达克代码:FLGT)的年终业绩有望大大超过投资者预期。在这段于11月15日录制的综艺节目现场视频中,《综艺节目》的撰稿人Keith Speights和Brian Orelli回答了一个观众的问题,即这是否意味着Fulgent被低估了。
With the vast majority of the company's third-quarter revenue coming from COVID-19 testing rather than its core business and considering the general uncertainty over how COVID-19 will progress, it's understandable that investors would discount the current revenue. However, Fulgent seems to be preparing well for a gradual decline in COVID-testing revenue.
由于该公司第三季度的大部分收入来自COVID-19检测,而不是其核心业务,考虑到COVID-19将如何发展的普遍不确定性,可以理解投资者会不考虑当前的收入。但是,Fulgent似乎为covid - 19检测收入的逐渐下降做好了准备。
Brian Orelli: Colin asked about Fulgent Genetics. He says they seem like they undervalued their $850 million in cash. Revenue for the quarter was $228 million with $40 [million] from their core business, which was up 300%. The company has so much optionality and cash to help fund the core business [that] total revenue for the year is forecasted at $930 million, and it trades at three times these earnings. I guess he's wondering why that's the case, and are they really undervalued?
Brian Orelli: Colin问了关于Fulgent Genetics的问题。他说,他们似乎低估了自己的8.5亿美元现金。该季度营收为2.28亿美元,其中4000万美元来自核心业务,增长了300%。该公司拥有如此多的选择权和现金,可以为核心业务提供资金,因此今年的总收入预计为9.3亿美元,而它的股价是这些收入的三倍。我猜他在想为什么会这样,它们真的被低估了吗?
Keith Speights: I wouldn't go as far to say as they're undervalued, Colin. I think the reason why is this: a lot of Fulgent's revenue right now is coming from COVID-19 testing. Investors know that that won't totally go away, but I think investors fully expect that revenue to decline over the long term.
Keith Speights:科林,我不会说它们被低估了。我认为原因是:Fulgent现在的很多收入来自COVID-19检测。投资者知道,这种情况不会完全消失,但我认为,投资者完全预计,从长期来看,收入将会下降。
Fulgent is doing a good job of branching out. Of course, it was already doing genetic testing outside of COVID-19 before the pandemic came along. But I think the company is doing a really good job of building up its non-COVID business. But there is a question of what happens when that revenue starts to taper off, assuming that it does. I think that's why the valuation isn't as high as you might expect it would otherwise be, looking at some of those numbers. Brian, am I missing something there? Do you agree?
Fulgent在拓展业务方面做得很好。当然,在大流行到来之前,它就已经在COVID-19之外进行基因测试了。但我认为该公司在建立非covid业务方面做得非常好。但有一个问题是,假设收入开始减少,那么会发生什么。我认为这就是为什么它的估值没有你所期望的那么高,从这些数据来看。布莱恩,我是不是漏了什么?你同意吗?
Orelli: No, I completely agree. If you figure the $40 million for the core business versus $228 million, that's a lot that they could potentially fall if COVID falls off a cliff. If that gets cut in half, that's almost -- their revenue almost getting cut in half since the core business is such a small percentage of the total right now. I think investors are factoring that in, and I think there's a lot of unknowns. When there's a lot of unknowns, investors tend to put a smaller valuation on the thing that they can't value very well.
奥雷利:不,我完全同意。如果你把核心业务的4000万美元与2.28亿美元计算出来,那么如果COVID从悬崖上掉下来,它们可能会大幅下降。如果减半,他们的收入也差不多减半,因为目前核心业务在总收入中所占的比例很小。我认为投资者正在考虑这一点,我认为还有很多未知因素。当存在很多未知因素时,投资者往往会对他们不能很好估值的东西给出较小的估值。